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China keen to meet carbon goals five years early, former US energy chief says
Sep 16, 2015 | South China Morning Post
By Andrea Chen and Li Jing
China intends to achieve its carbon reduction and renewable energy targets five years ahead of schedule, former US energy secretary Steven Chu said, as Beijing readies for climate talks in Paris. -
Chinese, U.S. Cities, States Unveil Emissions Pledges
Sep 16, 2015 | Bloomberg BNA
By Dean Scott
Nearly a dozen Chinese cities and provinces vowed Sept. 15 to peak their carbon emissions as much as a decade sooner than the 2030 national target China President Xi Jinping announced last November. -
City Cuts Eliminate as Much Global Warming Pollution as Japan Produces
Sep 15, 2015 | Scientific American
By Lisa Friedman
Leaders of Los Angeles, Beijing and more than two dozen other Chinese and American municipalities will announce sweeping climate change commitments today as they prepare for a landmark U.N. deal in December. -
UK solar cuts will cost country in the long run, says REA
Sep 15, 2015 | PV Magazine
By Ian Clover
Savings made under the government's proposed budget cap should the FIT be cut by the proposed rate will be less than monies lost in tax and national insurance revenue as 15,000 jobs are lost, finds REA. -
Study finds UK solar cuts could cost government £100 million
Sep 15, 2015 | PV-Tech
By Liam Stoker
Analysis conducted by the UK's Renewable Energy Association has claimed that government proposals to cut the feed-in tariff by up to 87% could end up costing the UK almost £100 million (US$153.6 million) in lost tax revenue and additional welfare payments. -
EU PVSEC: Stagnating global PV installations till 2020 or 100 GW cumulative capacity?
Sep 15, 2015 | PV Magazine
By Michael Fuhs
On Monday, the 31st EU PVSEC in Hamburg, Germany opened its doors. Despite the current turbulence in the European solar industry, a high visitor turnout was seen at the opening conference. Future industry expectations are split: Either global installations will stagnate until 2020; or increase to 100 GW. -
German PV equipment manufacturers see orders triple
Sep 15, 2015 | PV Magazine
By Becky Beetz
German solar PV equipment manufacturers are experiencing an uptick in demand, compared to the beginning of the year, with turnovers increasing 52%, says German Engineering Federation, VDMA. Asian competition is said to be intensifying, however. -
U.S. Solar Heads for Slump in 2017 If Tax Incentive Cut
Sep 16, 2015 | Bloomberg BNA
By Brian Eckhouse
The U.S. solar industry will slump in 2017 if Congress allows a key federal tax credit to lapse, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said in a report. -
SPI 2015: US solar industry must unite to save ITC, warns SEIA’s Resch
Sep 15, 2015 | PV-Tech
By Ben Willis
The 2015 Solar Power International expo got underway in Anaheim, California on Monday evening, with a stark warning of the existential threat posed to US solar by the pending drop in the federal investment tax credit (ITC). -
Clouds on the horizon as Solar Power International opens in Southern California
Sep 15, 2015 | PV Magazine
By Christian Roselund
The largest solar trade show in the United States began with a lot of energy and enthusiasm, but also warnings of the pending crash if the ITC is not extended. -
What Will A New Prime Minister Mean For Australia’s Renewable Energy Industry
Sep 14, 2015 | CleanTechnica
By Joshua S Hill
Australia’s Liberal Party has elected a new leader, Malcolm Turnbull, which will soon mean a new Prime Minister for Australia — a move which has every chance to have a positive impact on the country’s renewable energy industry which has suffered heavily under the now-previous Prime Minister, Tony Abbott.
Industry News
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China keen to meet carbon goals five years early, former US energy chief says
Sep 16, 2015 | South China Morning Post
By Andrea Chen and Li Jing
China intends to achieve its carbon reduction and renewable energy targets five years ahead of schedule, former US energy secretary Steven Chu said, as Beijing readies for climate talks in Paris.
Speaking on Tuesday before a speech on clean energy at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Chu said China's commitment to cap emissions, limit the use of fossil fuels and increase the share of renewable energy as its primary sources of consumption to about 20 per cent by 2030 - a goal set by President Xi Jinping during his meeting with his American counterpart last November - was "surprising and aggressive".
Beijing wanted to reach the goal ahead of the schedule, he said. Beijing will offer to reduce emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 60-65 per cent from 2005 levels by around 2030 in the package it will take to the United Nations conference in December.
"When I talked to people [from China] privately, they say we want to really do this by 2025," Chu said. "I think they are sincere and they really want to do this," he added, although he declined to specify whether he was referring to Chinese officials.
To meet that reduction, China needed better coordination and implementation of its policies at home, Chu said.
"It's not enough to say we store this much solar [energy] and this much wind [energy]. You've got to use it, replace coal-burning plants … enforce regulation already on the book."
Chu, who won the Nobel Prize in physics, served as energy secretary in US President Barack Obama's first term. His remarks came as top negotiators from Beijing, including State Councillor Yang Jiechi , and Washington gathered in the United States for two days of climate talks ahead of Xi's state visit.Read more: China to curb carbon emissions by 2030, says Premier Li Keqiang
The White House said the summit would see the signing of a declaration featuring more aggressive reduction goals by some major Chinese cities. Dozens of mainland cities have committed to peaking carbon dioxide emissions earlier than 2030.
Li Yan, Greenpeace East Asia climate and energy campaign manager, said China's earlier statement that emissions would peak "no later than 2030" had "left space" for hitting the target ahead of schedule. The country's efforts in tackling air pollution and other recent changes in its energy and economic structure made such progress even more realistic, she said.
"China's coal consumption had already been dropping in 2014, and in the first eight months of 2015, plus the installation of renewable energy is continuously being added, making it possible for China to peak earlier at a smaller cap," Li said.
It was unlikely China would make a formal announcement to revise its existing pledges ahead of the December summit, Li said.
Chu doubted all 129 attending countries would reach a consensus, but he hoped some would release ambitious targets.
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Chinese, U.S. Cities, States Unveil Emissions Pledges
Sep 16, 2015 | Bloomberg BNA
By Dean Scott
Nearly a dozen Chinese cities and provinces vowed Sept. 15 to peak their carbon emissions as much as a decade sooner than the 2030 national target China President Xi Jinping announced last November.
China's capital city, Beijing, would peak its carbon emissions “around 2020,” according the U.S-China Climate Leaders' Declaration, which also touted new goals for New York, San Francisco and 13 other U.S. cities as well as Miami-Dade County and two states, Connecticut and California.
The pledges kick off a two-day climate change and low-carbon cities summit in Los Angeles a week before Xi's state visit to the U.S., which is to include a meeting with President Barack Obama in Washington, D.C.
Xi's state visit is not expected to result in new climate pledges beyond those the two leaders unveiled jointly in November 2014 in which China vowed to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 if not sooner. The U.S. pledged a cut of up to 28 percent by 2025 from 2005 levels. Both offers were meant to spur momentum toward getting a global climate deal agreed to at a Paris summit this fall.
In a related development, the executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Christiana Figueres, discussed details of the “first draft” of the text for the Paris talks during a meeting in Brussels with members of the European Parliament's environment committee (see related story).
Widening Climate Engagement
The pledges from cities, states and other local jurisdictions in both countries “shows the determination of both countries to continually deepen and strengthen cooperation on climate change” and widen that engagement to local governments and the private sector ahead of Nov. 30-Dec. 11 UN talks, according to a press statement.
Under China's pledges, Sichuan province would peak its emissions before 2030; the island province of Hainan by 2030; the city of Shenzhen by 2022. Zhenjiang offered China's most ambitious pledge: That city's emissions would peak in 2020.
Also, the Chinese cities and provinces that are pledging to peak their carbon dioxide emissions ahead of the national 2030 goal have formed the Alliance of Peaking Pioneer Cities to coordinate those efforts.
In addition to San Francisco and New York, the other U.S. cities pledging action under the announcement are Atlanta, Boston, Washington D.C., Los Angeles, Oakland, Seattle, Houston, Salt Lake City, Portland, Ore., Des Moines, Iowa, Carmel, Ind., Pinecrest, Fla., and Lancaster, Pa.
New California Actions
California, which has already pledged to cut its greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050 below 1990 levels, offered several new actions by 2030 under the announcement. By 2030 it will cut emissions 40 percent from 1990 levels; increase the amount of electricity from renewable sources to 50 percent; halve the amount of petroleum used by cars and trucks; and double the energy efficiency for existing buildings.
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City Cuts Eliminate as Much Global Warming Pollution as Japan Produces
Sep 15, 2015 | Scientific American
By Lisa Friedman
Leaders of Los Angeles, Beijing and more than two dozen other Chinese and American municipalities will announce sweeping climate change commitments today as they prepare for a landmark U.N. deal in December.
The promises of 11 Chinese cities to peak greenhouse gas emissions, some by the end of this decade, will eliminate 1.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere annually, according to the White House. That’s about the amount of carbon pollution Japan or Brazil produces each year.
Meanwhile, American cities are vowing a range of actions—from eliminating coal-fired power in Los Angeles by 2025 to reducing emissions 25 percent below 2005 levels by the end of the decade and 80 percent by midcentury in Boston.
White House senior adviser Brian Deese said the United States and China are taking a leadership role ahead of global negotiations in Paris.
But both nations already jointly announced emissions targets last year—the United States to cut emissions 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 and China to peak emissions growth by 2030. Deese indicated that neither today’s summit nor Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington, D.C., next week will produce major new national commitments for Paris.
“Having made those ambitious targets, this year needs to be a year of implementation,” Deese said.
He noted that the world’s two largest emitters have said they will try to reach the upper range of their targets, and gatherings like today’s U.S.-China Climate Leaders Summit in Los Angeles are part of that. For the United States, that means getting to the 28 percent range, and for China, it means peaking well before 2030.
“Both countries are making best efforts to get to ambitious ranges,” Deese said, adding that the focus this year for each country will be on proving that they can “credibly” achieve the goals.
President Xi visits next week. High point in pre-climate talks?
Xi will visit Seattle on Sept. 22 before arriving in Washington, D.C., to meet with Obama. Though the visit comes at a time of tension over cyber spying, several observers called climate change a likely high point in the U.S.-China discussions. Even without major new national-level pledges—which several sources said are unlikely—the meeting could produce momentum for Paris.“The visit will reinforce President Obama’s and President Xi’s commitment to reach a strong climate agreement in Paris and to implement the climate mitigation targets they announced last year,” said U.S. Special Envoy for Climate Change Todd Stern in a statement to ClimateWire.SEE ALSO:Health: Researchers Seek Cancer Clues from Pet Dogs | Mind: Animals Have More Social Smarts Than You May Think | Tech: Are We on the Cusp of War—in Space? | The Sciences: The Mystery of the Cat's Inner Eyelid
Stern will represent the United States at the Los Angeles summit, which is the first gathering of U.S. and Chinese local leaders under a climate change working group devised last year. All the cities will sign a pledge to slash emissions parallel to whatever deal is worked out among nations in Paris.
The Chinese cities, representing 25 percent of the country’s urban emissions, will announce a new alliance of municipalities that pledge to peak carbon pollution ahead of the national 2030 target. Beijing and Guangzhou most notably will promise to peak by 2020. In addition to the voluntary pledges, the cities will openly report on progress, the White House said.
U.S. cities, states and counties also are making new pledges. California will offer up its goal of cutting emissions 80 to 90 percent below 1990 levels by midcentury, and Seattle will vow to become carbon-neutral by that same year. The mayor of Carmel, Ind., will vow to slash emissions 40 percent by 2040; while Phoenix, Houston and Washington, D.C., will commit to cut carbon 80 percent by midcentury.
They and others will also publicly report on follow-through.
“This will show the two largest emitters in the world are taking seriously the commitments to meet their ambitious goals,” Deese said.
Other leaders, meanwhile, said they hope to see Xi and Obama continue to set a high bar ahead of Paris.
“I wouldn’t expect to see new targets or anything like that,” said Jo Tyndall, New Zealand’s climate change ambassador to the United Nations, during a recent visit to Washington, D.C.
But, Tyndall said, “Anything that signals a preparedness to find common ground ... would of course be helpful to the process.”
Ambassador Karl Hood, Grenada’s envoy to Beijing, who previously led the climate negotiations for small island nations, said that for the sake of vulnerable countries, he hopes to see Obama and Xi further their pledges and “send a shock wave to the rest of the world.”
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UK solar cuts will cost country in the long run, says REA
Sep 15, 2015 | PV Magazine
By Ian Clover
Savings made under the government's proposed budget cap should the FIT be cut by the proposed rate will be less than monies lost in tax and national insurance revenue as 15,000 jobs are lost, finds REA.
The Renewable Energy Association (REA) of the U.K. has studied the potential impact of the government’s proposals to cut the feed-in tariff (FIT) by as much as 87% by January 1, 2016, and found that the move could result in a net loss for the country’s coffers.
In estimating how much money will be lost in terms of tax, national insurance revenue and welfare payments from the 15,000 jobs that are predicted to go if the government’s cuts are enacted, the REA has found that the HM Treasury will miss out on £94 million ($145 million).
When set against the proposed savings to the Department of Energy and Climate Change’s (DECC) proposed budget cat until the end of the incentive, this works out as a net loss for the government – and is further evidence of a confused, short-sighted and ideologically driven assault by the Conservatives on the U.K.’s solar industry.
The 15,000 job losses is a conservative estimate, with some projections suggesting that as many as 25,000 jobs could go following the latest changes to the solar support scheme. The estimates from the REA do not include the loss of business rates for local councils, nor VAT and corporation tax paid by solar companies that may have to downsize or struggle to survive.
The REA said it was "disappointed" that after a decade of government support for the expansion of solar power, the industry is in danger of "being tripped at the final hurdle" before it can reach grid parity, which is expected in 2020 according to a REA/KPMG report.
"The government’s sudden reversal of support for solar and other emerging renewables technologies ignores the substantial benefits that a healthy renewables industry provide to U.K. employment and the public purse," said REA head of policy and external affairs, James Court. "Our recent solar report shows how the technology can reach grid parity, but this relies on continued government support."
Another strand of the REA’s attack on the government’s decision is the negative impact it will have on further U.K. innovation – a secondary benefit of a thriving solar industry. With solar suppressed, recent strides in the U.K.’s storage sector will suffer, slowing further development in innovation and cost reduction, warns REA’s senior policy analyst Frank Gordon.
"Not only do the government proposals risk a damaging boom-and-bust scenario that might see the [FIT] scheme shut early, but they also damage the prospects for energy storage, which ministers have said they support," said Gordon. "Storage and renewables together will aid local communities to make independent decisions around their energy supplies and save money. Cutting government support now jeopardises this innovative future."
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Study finds UK solar cuts could cost government £100 million
Sep 15, 2015 | PV-Tech
By Liam Stoker
Analysis conducted by the UK's Renewable Energy Association has claimed that government proposals to cut the feed-in tariff by up to 87% could end up costing the UK almost £100 million (US$153.6 million) in lost tax revenue and additional welfare payments.
The proposals will significantly cap the number of domestic rooftop installations allowed – if the cap isn’t already exhausted by an expected rush to install until 1 January 2016 – with an estimated 15,000 jobs lost as a result.
REA analysis has estimated this to result in a net loss to the taxpayer of £94 million from lost tax and National Insurance revenue, as well as welfare payments. The REA also insists this is a conservative estimate given other forecast that as many as 25,000 jobs will be lost from the sector.
The Department for Energy and Climate Change attracted considerable criticism for failing to include job losses in its impact assessment, claiming it would be impossible to quantify the impact without seeking input from the industry itself first.
This point was further enforced yesterday when energy minister Andrea Leadsom responded to a question raised by Dulwich and West Norwood MP Helen Hayes, who sought clarification on what assessment DECC had made on the impact the proposals would have on British SMEs.
In a response issued last Friday Leadsom said the impact on businesses would “depend on the options taken forward after the review”, indicating that the department would father more information as part of the ongoing consultation.
Frank Gordon, senior policy analyst at the REA, added that the proposals also damage the scope for energy storage support – technology which the government is on the record of supporting.
“Storage and renewables together will aid local communities to make independent decisions around their energy supplies and save money. Cutting government support now jeopardises this innovative future,” Gordon said.
On Tuesday morning, Lord Deben, chairman of the UK's Committee on Climate Change (CCC), said that the purpose of subsidies was to “help new ways of solving old problems in markets controlled by big companies” and questioned whether or not removing or severely cutting subsidy support would help drive innovation.
His sentiments fly completely against comments made by DECC permanent secretary Stephen Lovegrove before parliament’s summer recess when he suggested that industries often innovated when subsidy support was removed as they looked to still compete.
PV Tech's sister site Solar Power Portal is currently surveying UK solar installers to see where their priorities lie following the proposals to help inform our coverage of new sectors such as renewable heat, energy efficiency and storage. The survey, which will take just two minutes to complete, can be found here.
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EU PVSEC: Stagnating global PV installations till 2020 or 100 GW cumulative capacity?
Sep 15, 2015 | PV Magazine
By Michael Fuhs
On Monday, the 31st EU PVSEC in Hamburg, Germany opened its doors. Despite the current turbulence in the European solar industry, a high visitor turnout was seen at the opening conference. Future industry expectations are split: Either global installations will stagnate until 2020; or increase to 100 GW.
The high number of attendees is in stark contrast to the partly warning, partly skeptical outlook on the future of the European solar industry, as communicated by several of the speakers at the opening conference of the 31st EU PVSEC, held yesterday in Hamburg.
"It will be difficult for a European industry to be competitive, when there is no European market," stated Paolo Frankl, head of the renewable energy division at the International Energy Agency (IEA). He further raised the question of why decentralized distributed power supply is taking off across the world, and not in Europe.
Responding to his own question, Frankl said that in Europe, several factors have come together: there is less sunshine compared to other parts of the world; energy demand will not rise; there is supply overcapacity; and problems with network integration. And it would not exhaust all potential, which lies in self-consumption. There is a need, he continued, for new business models, like those in Australia, which is, for example, more advanced in this sector.
Global installations
Overall, the IEA sees a slowing down in the global solar PV market. In two weeks, it will publish its new report, however a few figures were already available: in 2015, it anticipates that 45 GW of new solar PV installations will be seen.
In the IEA’s main scenario, it doesn’t see this figure rising, although in its positive scenario it says 55 GW of new annual installations could be reached. "I’m not saying that it can’t be more," said Frankl, "but obstacles must be removed." This is much less than the 57 GW the analysts at IHS expect to see
Eicke Weber, director at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, went even further, stating that a cumulative 100 GW capacity is realistic. It is just a question of how much of a role Europe will play, he said.
Most important
2,200 participants have already registered at this year’s EU PVSEC, and more are expected, said the organizers. As such, last year’s figures – where 3,000 participants registered during the week – could be exceeded. The adjacent solar tradeshow begins today, Tuesday.
In the words of Stefan Rinck, CEO of Singulus Technologies amd chairman of the event, the EU PVSEC has established itself as the most important conference worldwide for PV experts. This also helps to explain why attendee numbers are so high. Of those pre-registered, 28% came from Germany and 5% from France and the Netherland, respectively. Of the non-European participants, Japan leads with 7%, followed by China, the U.S. and Korea, at 4% each.
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German PV equipment manufacturers see orders triple
Sep 15, 2015 | PV Magazine
By Becky Beetz
German solar PV equipment manufacturers are experiencing an uptick in demand, compared to the beginning of the year, with turnovers increasing 52%, says German Engineering Federation, VDMA. Asian competition is said to be intensifying, however.
Despite a sluggish start to the year, Q2 has seen an uptick in the fortunes of Germany’s solar PV equipment manufacturers, with turnovers increasing 52% on Q1. Overall, Germany is said to have cornered over half the market for equipment in H1 2015.
Compared to Q2 2014, orders have almost tripled, says VDMA, thus bringing them in line with those seen in Q2 2011. While no specific figures were provided, VDMA says Asia accounted for 41% of all new orders, followed by the U.S. with 26%, Europe with 17% and Germany with 16%.
"The order situation of the German Photovoltaic machinery industry gives us every reason to be optimistic. Leading manufacturers invest in technology and production solutions again. Consequently, we expect a continuation of the economic recovery over the next few months," commented Florian Wessendorf, MD of VDMA Photovoltaic Equipment.
Overall, East Asia is said to represent the most important market for Germany’s equipment manufacturers, with turnover there totaling 46%. The U.S., meanwhile, accounted for 31%, and Germany and Europe, 13% and 11%, respectively.
At 60%, solar cell production equipment continued to represent the strongest segment, followed by equipment for polysilicon and wafer production, at 19%. Thin film equipment and equipment for crystalline backend module production accounted for 13% and 8%, respectively.
Although the U.S. trade tariffs on solar equipment from China and Taiwan are continuing to impact can still be felt by Germany’s equipment manufacturers, Peter Fath, MD of RCT Solutions GmbH and Chairman of VDMA Photovoltaic Equipment, says, "our customers have accepted the situation," with many having either relocated or added new production facilities elsewhere.
While Germany’s equipment manufacturers are enjoying a strong market share, VDMA says competition is intensifying, particularly among Asian counterparts.
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U.S. Solar Heads for Slump in 2017 If Tax Incentive Cut
Sep 16, 2015 | Bloomberg BNA
By Brian Eckhouse
The U.S. solar industry will slump in 2017 if Congress allows a key federal tax credit to lapse, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said in a report.The Investment Tax Credit is due to be cut at the end of next year, and the London-based research company expects total solar installations in the U.S. to surge to 11.3 gigawatts in 2016 as developers race to qualify. The following year, the market will plummet 70 percent, according to the report released Sept. 15.The pattern mirrors the swings of the U.S. wind market, which plunged 92 percent in 2013 after another incentive expired.“We've seen scale-ups and drop-offs in the wind industry, and we've seen how painful that can be at times,” said Ethan Zindler, an analyst at New Energy Finance in Washington. “It would appear that the solar sector could face a similar situation in the next few years.”The tax credit reimburses owners of solar projects 30 percent of the cost of installation. That will drop to 10 percent in January 2017 for utility-scale power plants and zero for residential systems.The House of Representatives is evaluating a proposal to extend the credit through 2021, and a similar bill in the Senate would extend it, though only for residential projects, according to Alexandra Hobson, a spokeswoman at the Solar Energy Industries Association in Washington. No hearings have been scheduled for either of them, she said.Solar GrowthSolar installations have been climbing steadily in the U.S., with a compound annual growth rate of 31 percent from 2011 through 2014. New Energy Finance is expecting a record 7.1 gigawatts this year.If the policy is extended, that will climb to 8.7 gigawatts the following year, lower than the predicted 2016 surge if the policy lapses. Renewing the credit would also head off the 2017 slump; in that case, the research company expects 9 gigawatts of new solar installations that year.New Energy Finance expects a total of 73 gigawatts of solar power will be in operation in 2022 if the credit falls as scheduled after 2016, up from 19 gigawatts last year. If the credit's existing levels are extended, that would reach 95 gigawatts in seven years. -
SPI 2015: US solar industry must unite to save ITC, warns SEIA’s Resch
Sep 15, 2015 | PV-Tech
By Ben Willis
The 2015 Solar Power International expo got underway in Anaheim, California on Monday evening, with a stark warning of the existential threat posed to US solar by the pending drop in the federal investment tax credit (ITC).
Welcoming attendees, Rhone Resch, chief executive of the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), highlighted the rapid growth in US solar in recent years and its importance as an employer, with over 150,000 people now working in the sector.
But Resch said that success story now faced a real challenge from the expected step-down in the ITC, which is due to fall from 30% to 10% for commercial solar and to zero for residential. A joint report with GTM Research last week predicted that after a boom between now and the end of 2016, installations in 2017 were likely to fall by around 50% as a result of the cut.
On Tuesday Resch said the SEIA would be publishing another study undertaken by Bloomberg New Energy Finance scoping out the likely impact of the expected ITC drop-off on jobs in the US solar industry.
“It shows that 80,000 jobs will be lost for the industry if we do not extend the ITC. There are big companies that are going to be able to survive, sure. But we’re not going to be able to thrive,” Resch said of the BNEF report.
“I think people don’t understand the importance of the ITC. What the BNEF says is that the person sitting to your left or right, one of those two people is not going to be working in solar in 2017 or 18 if the ITC expires. So this is a big deal, and there’s a lot we can be doing as an industry to make sure we extend it.”
SEIA chairman Nat Kreamer underlined these figures with a warning that with the ITC reduced or eliminated altogether, “soft costs”, namely jobs, would become targets for solar companies as they struggle to remain viable.
“The ITC, depending on what portion of the value chain you work in, might represent anywhere from 30-80 cents per watt. So if you look at the price of modules and inverters, there’s not a lot of room to take 30-80c per watt out. But one thing that comes out are soft costs, and that’s people, those are jobs. We’re in some state of denial as an industry and we don’t understand the variable cost nature of soft costs” Kreamer said.
Resch drew parallels with the US wind industry, which was hit hard by the withdrawal of the production tax credit in 2013.
“You have to just look at the wind industry to understand the impact that a radical shift in policy can have,” he said. “And for those of you who worked in the industry you know when the PTC expired how dramatic an impact that had on employment, where they saw a 70% loss in jobs in that industry.”
Resch said the industry’s greatest hope was for an extension to the ITC to be included in an “omnibus spending bill” that he said he hoped would come together in late November or early December.
Later this week, US vice president Joe Biden will address the SPI audience, underlining the support solar has at the highest levels of the current administration. However, with the 2016 presidential election campaign now gathering pace, that support should not be taken for granted, a point acknowledged by Resch.
“I think we have a very good chance, but if and only if we as an industry make sure our voice is heard,” he said.
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Clouds on the horizon as Solar Power International opens in Southern California
Sep 15, 2015 | PV Magazine
By Christian Roselund
The largest solar trade show in the United States began with a lot of energy and enthusiasm, but also warnings of the pending crash if the ITC is not extended.
This year's Solar Power International trade show got off to a strong start. Based on registration numbers, organizers are expecting 15,000 visitors, a 25% increase over the 12,000 who attended the previous year.
The mood at the opening day of the show was doubtless influenced by developments in the prior week. First, U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden confirmed that he will speak at the conference. Second, on the last day of the session, California's legislature passed a bill to require that the state's utilities procure 50% of their electricity from renewable energy sources by 2030 – the second-strongest mandate in the nation.
The show also comes during a boom time for U.S. solar, particularly in the utility-scale segment. In its latest quarterly report, GTM Research estimates that over 5 GW of solar is currently under construction in the United States, driven by a rush to complete projects before the drop-down of the investment tax credit (ITC).
However, this boom is inseparable from a pending collapse in the market come 2017 if the ITC is not extended. In the conference's opening session, Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) spoke in no uncertain terms about the danger that the industry was facing, calling ITC extension the industry's “biggest policy challenge yet.”
“I think you need to look at the wind industry to know what a dramatic impact this can have,” warned SEIA CEO Rhone Resch, referring to the multiple times that the Production Tax Credit has expired.
Resch cited numbers from a new report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, which predicts that U.S. installed solar capacity will fall from over 11 GW in 2016 to 3.4 GW in 2017 if the ITC is not extended. With a five year extension, the report finds a much less severe impact from a similar drop-down of tax credit levels in 2022.
The report also finds that the pending decline in the ITC in 2017 will be accompanied by the loss of 80,000 jobs, or more than half the current total. With fallout from related industries, this number would be more than 100,000 jobs.
During the conference's opening session, SEIA officials called on those in the audience to get active in the campaign for ITC extension, including by joining the organization. Resch also revealed that there is currently a bill in the U.S. House to extend the ITC for five years and allow projects under construction by the end of the term to access the credit, with 40 co-signers.
However, he notes that this legislation is unlikely to pass on its own, and will probably be incorporated into either an extenders package or an omnibus bill, subject to the political uncertainties of congressional horse-trading.
In the opening session SEIA also spoke to the Obama Administration's Clean Power Plan. The organization notes that while the plan is a very positive step for solar, that the real test will be implementation at the state level.
“There's 50 states worth of work to make that a reality,” noted SEIA Board Chair Nat Kreamer, who also serves as CEO of Clean Power Finance.
Furthermore, the effects of the Clean Power Plan will not be immediate. “You're really not looking at anything until 2020, 2022 or beyond,” explained Kreamer.
These warnings did little to dampen the crowd's enthusiasm. It is still boom time in the U.S. solar industry, even if clock is ticking. Resch also notes that the ITC extension is already starting to affect the industry, as no one is planning larger solar projects that cannot be completed in sixteen months' time.
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What Will A New Prime Minister Mean For Australia’s Renewable Energy Industry
Sep 14, 2015 | CleanTechnica
By Joshua S Hill
Australia’s Liberal Party has elected a new leader, Malcolm Turnbull, which will soon mean a new Prime Minister for Australia — a move which has every chance to have a positive impact on the country’s renewable energy industry which has suffered heavily under the now-previous Prime Minister, Tony Abbott.
Australian Politics 101
The fact that the leader of a country can be swapped out for a newer or better model by a country’s politicians was a new way to look at things for many people a few years ago. However, in 2010, the world saw the Australian Labor Party — the political party in charge at the time — express no-confidence in the leader of the party, and therefore the leader of the country, Kevin Rudd. This gave rise to Australia’s first female Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, who suffered a similar “leadership spill” in June of 2013, which saw the return of Kevin Rudd to the leader of the Labor Party, and the country. (Though this was a short-lived position, as he subsequently lost the next national election only three months later.)
Such change in leadership — a change in leadership that is carried out entirely by the few elected politicians rather than the whole nation — is an odd notion, but one that is uniquely representative of the vicious way in which politics has been played out in Australia for the last decade.
Today, Monday the 14th, the Australian Liberal Party (which, ironically, are a politically-conservative party) voted to make Malcolm Turnbull its leader — which has the run-on effect of giving Australia a new Prime Minister. (Actually a Prime Minister-designate until he is officially made Prime Minister, which should happen Tuesday.)
The move comes after many months of political infighting, bickering, and rumour — not to mention yet another Liberal Party leadership spill in February of 2015, which saw then-Prime Minister Tony Abbott face a similar vote of no-confidence, which he managed to escape by the skin of his teeth. Tony Abbott has faced much criticism as a result of his very conservative policy decisions on a range of issues — most obviously issues of immigration, defence, national security, environment and renewable energy, and same-sex marriage.Malcolm Turnbull vs. Tony Abbott
Biographies of all those involved — former Prime Minister Tony Abbott, newly raised Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, and the long-serving (and more importantly still-serving) Julie Bishop — are readily available online, so we can skip that and move on to the more specific nature of what Malcolm Turnbull’s new position as leader of Australia might mean for the country’s policy towards the environment and renewable energy.
I have not been quiet in my distaste for Tony Abbott, who I believe has run a campaign of anti-science and pro-fossil fuel. Mr Abbott successfuly repealed the (admittedly flawed)carbon tax in July of 2014, which began a long series of policy decisions and public declarations of support for fossil fuels — specifically a stance in favour of coal as Australia’s primary form of electricity generation — which ran hand-in-hand with a dismissal of support for renewable energy. This dismissal took the form of a number of reforms to Australia’s renewable energy policy which saw an increasing lack of support for the technology, resulting in a massive drop in investment (77% by the end of 2014), global condemnationfrom national leaders, and numerous reports demonstrating Australia’s deteriorating global standing.
Will Malcolm Turnbull reverse all of Tony Abbott’s seemingly-out of touch policy decisions?
Probably not, sadly. Questioned in a press event less than an hour after he won the leadership vote, Prime Minister-designate Malcolm Turnbull praised the existing climate policy, claiming it was “very well designed” and “a very good piece of law”. Of course, the bill was designed in part by his newly-elected deputy, Julie Bishop (along with Environment Minister Greg Hunt), so it’s unsurprising that in his first press conference following the successful leadership vote that he would praise all previous policy. However, as has been made very clear, Australia’s current environmental policy is not good at all.
However, interestingly, Malcolm Turnbull has long been at odds with his party leader over his views on climate change.
In an op-ed written back in 2009 (prior to the crafting of the environment policy he praised tonight), Mr Turnbull described Tony Abbott’s climate change policy as “bullshit” (which says all you need to know about Australian politics, right there).
“Second, as we are being blunt, the fact is that Tony and the people who put him in his job do not want to do anything about climate change. They do not believe in human caused global warming. As Tony observed on one occasion “climate change is crap” or if you consider his mentor, Senator Minchin, the world is not warming, its cooling and the climate change issue is part of a vast left wing conspiracy to deindustrialise the world.”
Furthermore, Malcolm Turnbull is a businessman — a successful one at that — and he will focus on ensuring Australia has a strong economy, business policy, and more besides.
This could mean that renewable energy will once again be seen as a favourable investment opportunity in Australia, if Malcolm Turnbull is to turn his love for business on to the renewable energy industry. We know that Malcolm Turnbull is a big fan of electric vehicles and energy storage, but whether that will stretch to include renewable energy is an answer to a question we will simply have to wait out and see.
However, as has been outlined by website They Vote For You, Malcolm Turnbull’s voting record on renewable energy has not been very impressive, so at the end of the day, Australia may have a new Prime Minister come Tuesday morning, but the country’s renewable energy industry may remain as stagnant as it was with Tony Abbott at the helm.
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