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SFCE Oct 21
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Hanwha set to restore Q CELLS as leading PV cell producer in 2015
Oct 20, 2015 | PV Tech
By Finlay Colville
....The effects of acquisition-based cell growth are seen clearly through Shunfeng (SFCE) (incorporating acquired capacities from Wuxi Suntech during 2014 and Suniva during 2015) and Motech (adding TopCell in 2015)... -
China hits 9.9 GW of solar by Q3, says NEA
Oct 20, 2015 | PV Magazine
By Ian Clover
Country hits 38 GW of cumulative capacity after installing 9.9 GW by September 30, according to data published this week by the National Energy Administration; 2015 target recently increased to 23.1 GW. Data published this week by China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) has revealed that 9.9 GW of new solar PV capacity was installed... -
China Solar Installations Double Despite Grid Issues
Oct 21, 2015 | BNA Daily Environment Report
China more than doubled the amount of solar capacity it installed in the first nine months of the year even though sales of electricity from some projects was halted because of congestion on the distribution grid. The nation added 9.9 gigawatts of solar power in the period through Sept. 30 compared with 3.79 gigawatts a year earlier, according... -
COP21: Political support growing for global clean energy R&D push, says UK climate envoy
Oct 20, 2015 | PV Tech
By Ben Willis
The UK government’s special representative on climate change has spoken of his optimism that plans for a concerted international push on clean energy research will be given additional impetus by the climate talks in Paris in December. Speaking to PV Tech, Sir David King, one of the co-promoters of a so-called “Global Apollo Programme”... -
El Salvador extends key renewable energy tax incentives
Oct 20, 2015 | PV Magazine
By Blanca Diaz Lopez
Last Thursday El Salvador's legislature approved an extension to tax incentives for renewable energy projects which were set to expire at the end of 2015. Thanks to a reform of the bill, it is now possible for projects larger than 20 MW to access incentives. -
Google’s newest renewable energy investment: Africa’s biggest wind farm
Oct 20, 2015 | The Washington Post
By Chelsea Harvey
Google has made a reputation for itself in recent years as a major investor in renewable energy. And this morning, the company announced its newest investment: a wind power project in Kenya that, when completed, will be the continent’s biggest wind farm. -
UN’s Chief Environment Scientist Scolds UK Over Renewable Energy
Oct 20, 2015 | Clean Technica
By Joshua S Hill
The UN’s chief environment scientist has rapped the UK on the wrist for its current renewable energy policy, calling it perverse. In an interview with BBC News, Professor Jacqueline McGlade, the Chief Scientist to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), criticized the current Government’s stance towards renewable energy... -
Renewables contribute to Germany’s stronger-than-expected electricity export performance
Oct 21, 2015 | PV Tech
By Andy Colthorpe
New research by Fraunhofer ISE appears to go some way towards disproving that Germany is “dumping” surplus energy from renewables on to its neighbours. Exporting electricity is expected to earn Germany up to €2 billion in revenues this year, up from €1.7 billion in 2014, according to the research institute, which has produced a series...
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Hanwha set to restore Q CELLS as leading PV cell producer in 2015
Oct 20, 2015 | PV Tech
By Finlay Colville
New research undertaken by PV Tech can exclusively reveal that Hanwha Q CELLS is on track to become the leading c-Si cell producer (by MW volume) in 2015.
This article presents the likely top 10 c-Si cell producers of 2015, reveals the big-three cell makers we are forecasting to produce in excess of 3GW in 2015 and maps out the strategies of the top 10 and how they are seeking to shift the curve with regards market-share dominance in the midstream silicon solar manufacturing space. The data is sourced from primary research undertaken by the PV Tech team.
The full analysis is currently being finalised and will be available January 2016 within PV Tech parent company Solar Media’s forthcoming PV Manufacturing & Technology Quarterly report. Asian companies now occupy top 10 solar cell production rankings
Top 10 rankings lists are typically of most use to marketing departments. What is often more interesting is to look at the collective trends of the top 10. For solar, few would dispute the value of the top 10 silicon solar cell producers (compared to logging module suppliers shipping rebranded and outsourced components for example as a short-term tactic).
For clarity, the PV Tech analysis here is based on extracting the in-house cell production data by company: no OEM supply, outsourcing, tolling, etc.
While the list is preliminary of course, at October 2015, the full-year rankings are coming together, and it is unlikely that the companies making up the top 10 will change by the time the final counting is done early next year. What will change are the rankings within the top 10 and, very possibly, which cell manufacturer can lay claim to the Number 1 Solar Cell Producer of 2015, an accolade that any company in the solar industry would be excited to own at any time.
In alphabetical order, here is the forecasted top 10 (by MW c-Si cells produced) group of companies for 2015.
The table on the left has been kept specific to c-Si manufacturing, with thin-film manufacturing starting to look increasingly more like a customised solution offering from one-off providers.However, the more striking takeaway from the table is the omission of European- or Western-run manufacturers. No place for SunPower in the top 10 lists anymore it would appear, and similarly of course for Japanese manufacturers.
Indeed, only the Korean ownership of newly branded Q CELLS operations (combining legacy Q CELLS and Solarfun cell production) prevents a complete China/Taiwan whitewash. For the record, the top 10 c-Si cell producers are likely to provide just over 40% of all solar cells shipped within modules (silicon and thin-film included) during 2015. Three-horse race for Number 1 position
Last week, we revealed exclusively in PV Tech that three cell producers were on track to manufacture more than 3GW of cells in 2015. We can now name the three companies: Hanwha Q CELLS, JA Solar and Trina Solar.
Based on current monthly production run-rates, and capacity addition rates, Hanwha Q CELLS would just about grab the top position, but year-end productivity could easily have the final say in the top rankings.
While production rankings don’t tell us about margins and long-term strategy, if Hanwha Q CELLS was to be crowned as the Number 1 Solar Cell Producer of 2015, it would likely be a massive coup for the Hanwha management team in Korea, and square-the-circle that involved acquiring – and integrating – Solarfun and Q CELLS, when each was somewhat in trouble within the industry.
In addition to the three cell producers named above, which are each expected to produce more than 3GW of cells in 2015, five of the top 10 are forecast to produce more than 2GW, with the final two in the 1.5-2GW range. So entry to the top 10 list – collectively manufacturing in the range of 25GW – now needs in-house cell capacity at the 2GW level and capacity conversion rates above 80%. Differing strategies for cell production across the top 10
It may still be in vogue today for companies involved in both manufacturing and downstream projects to prioritise site acquisition and project-build capex, but this is likely to be a passing phase in the industry. Certainly, when we isolate cell manufacturing activities of the top 10, we can largely split them up into three categories based on strategy:
• Organic growth: here organic refers to adding in-house manufacturing capacity by setting up new cell production capacity outside China/Taiwan, in Southeast Asia, as well as line upgrades and productivity enhancements.
• Acquisition based: adding capacity by virtue of M&A. Note, we have excluded the low-cost addition of distressed Chinese cell fab assets here as being a well-defined long term strategic growth route.
• Status quo: for want of a better term, used to group companies that have been largely treading water over the last couple of years, in part due to prioritising downstream growth over cell production or simply due to cashflow issues in general impacting on the business.
The lower graph on the left shows each of the top 10 cell producers within a quadrant plot, with the labels highlighting which of the three strategic directions have been chosen over the past 12 months. The x axis shows a 'Market Factor', that captures cell production growth year-on-year relative to the overall end-market growth. The y axis captures a comparative 'Rankings Factor', or how much companies have lost ground to the expected cell production leaders in 2015.
The effects of acquisition-based cell growth are seen clearly through Shunfeng (SFCE) (incorporating acquired capacities from Wuxi Suntech during 2014 and Suniva during 2015) and Motech (adding TopCell in 2015).This contrasts with the big-three producers (Hanwha Q CELLS, JA Solar and Trina Solar) that are growing production organically via Southeast Asia, with Gintech adding to this list but with ramped capacity yet to impact numbers this year.
The remaining companies, placed into the status quo placeholder, are most clearly highlighted by Yingli Green, where despite cell production levels still meriting top 10 inclusion, market-share losses will be the greatest of the 10 companies discussed in this feature. Other key trends for the top 10
Manufacturing and technology studies by the PV Tech team in the past few weeks have outlined the collective trends of the big-six Silicon Module Super League (SMSL) module suppliers and the big-three cell makers set to produce more than 3GW of cells each in 2015.
A similar analysis of the top 10 will be featured later this week on PV Tech, but just as a teaser, don’t expect any earth shattering news on the technology front! It is almost certain that diving into the cell makers that occupy ranking positions 11-20 will finally uncover the real happenings at the n-type and p-type mono side.
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China hits 9.9 GW of solar by Q3, says NEA
Oct 20, 2015 | PV Magazine
By Ian Clover
Country hits 38 GW of cumulative capacity after installing 9.9 GW by September 30, according to data published this week by the National Energy Administration; 2015 target recently increased to 23.1 GW.
Data published this week by China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) has revealed that 9.9 GW of new solar PV capacity was installed in the country in the first nine months of the year up to September 30.
This figure is more than double the 3.79 GW of new capacity added at the same stage in 2014, but still leaves the country playing catch-up if it hopes to hit the government’s recently increased annual installation target of 23.1 GW.
At the midway point of the year, China had installed 7.7 GW of solar PV capacity, and despite growing delays in grid connection in many parts of the country, managed to inch that figure close to double figures over the summer.
The NEA is hoping to hit 150 GW of cumulative solar PV capacity by 2020, but must overcome current and growing congestion challenges on the grid. According to NEA data, 10% of China’s installed PV capacity sat idle over the first three quarters of the year, with some provinces forced to leave more than one quarter of their solar capacity offline.
Gansu province is the most badly affected, with 28% of solar capacity deemed out of service, while Xinjiang province – which leads the nation in volume of PV installed – has left one-fifth of its capacity offline all year as it struggles to integrate this growing renewable source.
Joanna Lewis, professor of science, technology and international affairs at Georgetown University in the U.S., told pv magazine last week that while it is likely that China will meet its 2020 installation target, it must get to grips with these widespread curtailment issues.
"It is widely expected that power sector reforms being gradually rolled out will help renewables compete better with traditional electricity sources," Lewis said.
Link: http://www.pv-magazine.com/opinion-analysis/blogdetails/beitrag/china-hits-99-gw-of-solar-by-q3--says-nea_100021619/#axzz3p14jdhu3
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China Solar Installations Double Despite Grid Issues
Oct 21, 2015 | BNA Daily Environment Report
China more than doubled the amount of solar capacity it installed in the first nine months of the year even though sales of electricity from some projects was halted because of congestion on the distribution grid.
The nation added 9.9 gigawatts of solar power in the period through Sept. 30 compared with 3.79 gigawatts a year earlier, according to data from the National Energy Administration released Oct. 20. Ten percent of the nation's solar capacity sat idle during the period.
China is struggling to integrate surging supplies from renewable plants into the grid as the government spurs the industry as an alternative to more polluting fuels such as coal and natural gas. Authorities either delay hooking new plants to the grid or idle facilities whose output can't be managed.
Gansu province had 28 percent of its solar out of service, the highest rate for idled solar plants, the NEA said in a statement on its website. The rate for Xinjiang, which has the most installed capacity of the nation, was 20 percent.
China now has a total of almost 38 gigawatts of solar-power supply, the NEA said.
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COP21: Political support growing for global clean energy R&D push, says UK climate envoy
Oct 20, 2015 | PV Tech
By Ben Willis
The UK government’s special representative on climate change has spoken of his optimism that plans for a concerted international push on clean energy research will be given additional impetus by the climate talks in Paris in December.
Speaking to PV Tech, Sir David King, one of the co-promoters of a so-called “Global Apollo Programme” on clean energy R&D, said he believed the plan was gaining political traction and would be accelerated in the run-up to COP21 at the end of the year.
Launched in June, the Apollo programme set out plans for a 10-year, US$150 billion international R&D initiative aimed at making clean energy cheaper than fossil fuels worldwide by 2025.
The programme boasts an impressive list of co-authors, including the UK’s former cabinet secretary Gus O’Donnell, the London School of Economics’ climate economist Nicholas Stern and the former President of the Royal Society Martin Rees. It has also gained the backing of host of luminaries including the naturalist Sir David Attenborough and Professor Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University.
Sir David, the UK's former chief scientific advisor and now the UK foreign secretary's special representative on climate change, told PV Tech the initiative was now also coming to the attention of energy ministers in the G7 group of industrialised countries and beyond, referring to a communiqué issued after a G7 meeting in June, in which leaders committed to decarbonising the global economy this century.
“The second part of the statement was a major thrust in R&D demonstration in renewable energy technology so that we can roll out cheap energy around the world,” he said. “So that's got the blessing of the G7 heads of government – they've asked for their energy ministers to report back to the next meeting of the G7, which will be next year... So it's rolling. And it's rolling in another sense because of Paris. And so there's a useful means of accelerating the process because everyone's trying to get things in before Paris.”
Sir David added: “It’s already with the right people – it’s got the attention of the heads of government; that was the whole point of taking it through the G7. I think that all I can say at this stage is watch out for announcements. The IEA [International Energy Agency] has an energy ministerial meeting coming up in November, there’s a G20 meeting in late November; these are all opportunities for heads of government and ministers of energy to develop the elements of the programme into something before Paris.”
Sir David has already publicly stated his belief that solar offers perhaps the most realistic solution to the climate change problem.
In the interview with PV Tech, he added that storage technology should be a key beneficiary of the proposed R&D programme as it has not enjoyed the same support as PV from public subsidies. “The sun doesn't shine anywhere in the world at night, so energy storage and smart grids have become a part of rolling out base-load electricity from that source. And energy storage and smart grids got no benefits from feed-in tariffs,” he said.
Asked what he felt would happen at the COP21 talks, Sir David said he believed a deal would be reached, but that issues such as the flow of funds from the developed to developing worlds to fund climate mitigation and adaptation activities would be a big issue for negotiators to overcome.
Concluding, Sir David said the global shift to clean energy was not a possibility but a necessity: “It’s going to happen – we have to do it. So when the G7 heads of government announced they are going to decarbonise the world’s economy by the end of the century, they mean it. And I believe we have, frankly, no option.”
Link: http://www.pv-tech.org/news/cop_21_political_support_building_for_global_clean_energy_push_says_uk_cl
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El Salvador extends key renewable energy tax incentives
Oct 20, 2015 | PV Magazine
By Blanca Diaz Lopez
Last Thursday El Salvador's legislature approved an extension to tax incentives for renewable energy projects which were set to expire at the end of 2015. Thanks to a reform of the bill, it is now possible for projects larger than 20 MW to access incentives.
The newly approved amendments to the Law of Tax Incentives for the Development of Renewable Energy and the Generation of Electricity maintains the principle in the previous law that smaller projects will receive a higher level of benefits.
Projects up to 10 MW will continue to be fully exempt from taxes on income for 10 years, while projects larger than 5 MW wil be exempt for five years. The new law also states that additional phases of a project can benefit from incentives, which until now was not part of the law.
GTM Research Senior Analyst Adam James notes that like most Central American nations, tax incentives are a key driver for renewable energy in El Salvador. “The tax incentives were one of the most attractive things about El Salvador's solar market,” notes James. “Having them expire would have been a negative development for renewable energy deployment.”
In El Salvador various auctions for renewable energy projects have been held, for both distributed generation and utility-scale projects. In the last two years more than 100 MW of solar projects have been approved, and it is estimated that the nation of only 6.3 million inhabitants will have 204 MW of solar PV online by 2018.
In August El Salvador announced that a new auction for 150 MW of solar and wind projects would be launched, with the assistance of USAID.
Link: http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/el-salvador-extends-key-renewable-energy-tax-incentives_100021622/#axzz3p14jdhu3
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Google’s newest renewable energy investment: Africa’s biggest wind farm
Oct 20, 2015 | The Washington Post
By Chelsea Harvey
Google has made a reputation for itself in recent years as a major investor in renewable energy. And this morning, the company announced its newest investment: a wind power project in Kenya that, when completed, will be the continent’s biggest wind farm.
The Lake Turkana Wind Power Project, which broke ground in July, is expected to generate 1,400 gigawatt-hours of power per year, or 15 percent of the country’s electricity consumption, according to a fact sheet from Vestas, one of the project’s co-developers. The project will include 365 wind turbines, spread along the shore of Kenya’s Lake Turkana.
Vestas, a global wind energy company, will be in charge of installing the turbines (likely early next year) and will also provide maintenance for the farm for 15 years. Currently, Vestas owns a 12.5 percent stake in the project — and Google’s investment will be to buy this stake once the project goes online, which is planned for 2017.
The project is billed as the largest single private investment in Kenya’s history — and it’s expected to break new ground in other ways as well. According to Vestas, the project will be one of the most efficient wind farms in the world, operating with a capacity factor (its actual energy output, as opposed to its potential energy output) of 60 percent, whereas many other wind farms have a capacity factor of less than 35 percent.
The capacity factors for wind farms tend to be variable because the wind is so unpredictable in many places, picking up and slowing down. Lake Turkana is an ideal location because the wind blows consistently, with speeds topping 24 mph, according to Vestas.
It could be big news for Kenya, as the project is expected to save the country more than $113 million per year in imported fuel costs. Currently, the country relies heavily on hydropower and fossil fuels. According to the International Energy Agency, solar cells produced one gigawatt-hour of power in Kenya in 2012, and wind produced 15 gigawatt-hours. So the new plant will add substantially to the country’s renewable energy production.
As for Google, investment in the plant is just the latest in a string of recent renewable energy investments. In Africa, the company has invested in the Jasper Power Project, a solar plant in South Africa. Other wind investments have included farms in Iowa, Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota and other parts of the country. And Google also recently launched its Project Sunroof, an online tool that allows users to search their address and find out how much space they have available for solar panels, how many hours of usable sunlight they could generate and how much money they could save by switching to solar. Altogether, the Lake Turkana Wind Power Project makes Google’s 22nd renewable energy investment.
The announcement comes at a time when world leaders are still busy preparing for the UN’s annual climate conference, which will take place in Paris at the beginning of December. At the conference, they’ll attempt to finalize an international accord to combat climate change. Throughout the past year, nations around the world have been releasing their strategies to cut carbon emissions ahead of the conference, and earlier this month, 51 countries unveiled their climate action plans — but experts say it’s still not enough. Climate activists are calling for more aggressive mitigation strategies, and increased investment in renewable energy — designed to accompany a global effort to cut down on the burning of fossil fuels — is one important strategy.
So the announcement is a timely reminder that large-scale investments in wind farms, as well as solar plants and other forms of renewable energy, don’t just benefit the countries they directly serve: They affect the future of the planet as a whole.
Link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/10/20/googles-newest-renewable-energy-investment-africas-biggest-wind-farm/
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UN’s Chief Environment Scientist Scolds UK Over Renewable Energy
Oct 20, 2015 | Clean Technica
By Joshua S Hill
The UN’s chief environment scientist has rapped the UK on the wrist for its current renewable energy policy, calling it perverse.
In an interview with BBC News, Professor Jacqueline McGlade, the Chief Scientist to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), criticized the current Government’s stance towards renewable energy, and noted that the current state of the industry sent a worrying signal to those who will be attending the UN climate summit in Paris next month.
The UK Government is in the process of rolling back several renewable energy support policies, including the popular and successful Renewables Obligation scheme for onshore wind. A number of campaigns and organizations have reprimanded and criticized the UK for such actions, including a joint letter signed by ministers from both Scotland and Wales calling for the UK Government to open discussion into its support for renewable energy.
Speaking to BBC News, Professor McGlade said that the UK has abandoned its leadership on climate change at the same time as 150 nations were making major shifts towards clean energy.
“What I’m seeing worldwide is a move very much towards investment in renewable energy. To counterbalance that you see the withdrawal of subsidies and tax breaks for fossil fuels,” Professor McGlade said. “What’s disappointing is when we see countries such as the United Kingdom that have really been in the lead in terms of getting their renewable energy up and going — we see subsidies being withdrawn and the fossil fuel industry being enhanced.” This is sending the wrong message to other nations in the lead-up to the Paris UN summit next month, she said, adding that “It’s a very serious signal — a very perverse signal that we do not want to create.”
Link: http://cleantechnica.com/2015/10/20/uns-chief-environment-scientist-scolds-uk-renewable-energy/
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Renewables contribute to Germany’s stronger-than-expected electricity export performance
Oct 21, 2015 | PV Tech
By Andy Colthorpe
New research by Fraunhofer ISE appears to go some way towards disproving that Germany is “dumping” surplus energy from renewables on to its neighbours.
Exporting electricity is expected to earn Germany up to €2 billion in revenues this year, up from €1.7 billion in 2014, according to the research institute, which has produced a series of graphical representations of Germany’s energy trading statistics.
The data, taken from federal sources, shows also that overall, export prices have been higher than the price of imports from other countries into Germany. In 2015, the country is expected to export around 40TWh of surplus electricity, according to Fraunhofer’s Professor Bruno Burger, earning revenues of between €1.5 billion and €2 billion for this year.
Fraunhofer ISE said the figures contradicted the argument that Germany is selling its surplus electricity to foreign countries at "dumping" prices. “Over the past years, Germany was able to secure higher prices for its electricity exports than it paid for electricity imports,” Burger said.
The results show that despite racing ahead into renewable energy development much earlier than many other countries, “major efforts in renewable energy expansion are still drastically needed”, said Burger, who specialises in power electronics and control systems.
In the years between 2010 and 2014, Burger and his team found, nuclear energy production has fallen in Germany by 41TWh each year. From 133TWh in 2010, it fell to 92TWh in 2014. In that same period, renewables including solar, wind and biomass increased production by 118TWh annually. Meanwhile, the export surplus in 2010 was around 18TWh, rising to 36TWh in 2014.
However, despite these seemingly positive recent trends, solar energy deployment in particular has stalled in Germany. There is a controversial tender process for large-scale solar taking place over the next three years, limiting ground-mounted deployment to within 1.2GW of new capacity, while residential installation figures are falling, bolstered only by the increase in energy storage systems that allow homeowners to self-consume their PV power.
“Major efforts in renewable energy expansion are still drastically needed in order to replace the remaining nuclear power plants and to reduce the electricity production from coal-fired plants, which are especially damaging to the climate,” Burger said.
Fraunhofer has hosted the data on the interactive website "Energy Charts", which represents Germany's power and energy production and market information interactively.
Link: http://www.pv-tech.org/news/renewables_contribute_to_germanys_stronger_than_expected_electricity_export
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