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‘Super League’ shipments shift reveals top 5 manufacturers in 2015
Nov 25, 2015 | PV Tech
By Mark Osborne
In only the last two quarters of 2015, PV module shipments and full-year guidance from the six ‘Silicon Module Super League’ (SMSL) players has changed significantly. Several key factors have been at play in this period that include shipment momentum higher than previously guided by Trina Solar, Canadian Solar and JinkoSolar, capacity... -
Advances in PV cell technology in 2016 to remain a luxury, not a necessity
Nov 27, 2015 | PV Tech
By Finlay Colville
As most of the big-six 'Silicon Module Super League' (SMSL) members announce plans to increase cell capacity during 2016, the question of technology type remains highly important in terms of panel power ratings expected to be shipped over the next 12 months. This article examines new forecasts... -
NREL: Economic potential of renewable power rising fast
Nov 26, 2015 | PV Magazine
By Edgar Meza
Renewable energy generation has become economically viable in many parts of the United States due to the recent rapid decline in the costs of technology, according to a new report by the U.S. Energy Department’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). -
Brazil approves ‘historic’ net metering revision
Nov 25, 2015 | PV Tech
By Tom Kenning
Brazil’s energy regulator National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) has approved an “historic” revision of the country’s net metering scheme for small-scale renewable energy systems, making it amongst the most forward-thinking countries in this sector, according to Rodrigo Sauaia, the director of Brazil’s solar industry association, Absolar. -
Forum Solarpraxis: It's all political for Europe's big two solar powers
Nov 26, 2015 | PV Magazine
By Ian Clover
The three year storage subsidy extension revealed today by German Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy official Volker Hoppenbrock at the 16th Forum Solarpraxis in Berlin will likely mean Germany regains top spot as Europe’s largest solar market in 2016, Daniel Roca, Panasonic’s U.K. country manager, told pv magazine.
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‘Super League’ shipments shift reveals top 5 manufacturers in 2015
Nov 25, 2015 | PV Tech
By Mark Osborne
In only the last two quarters of 2015, PV module shipments and full-year guidance from the six ‘Silicon Module Super League’ (SMSL) players has changed significantly.
Several key factors have been at play in this period that include shipment momentum higher than previously guided by Trina Solar, Canadian Solar and JinkoSolar, capacity constraints for JA Solar and Hanwha Q CELLS and a liquidity crisis at Yingli Green.
These factors have combined to reset the top 5 PV module manufacturer rankings (by shipments) in 2015.
Revised Q3 module shipment guidance and capacity levels for SMSL members.
Not surprisingly, the big change is due to the financial woes at Yingli Green, which guided at the end of Q2 that it expected module shipments to be in the range of 2.5GW to 2.8GW in 2015, down from 3.6GW to 3.9GW previously guided at the beginning of the year.
Importantly, shipments are expected to be down around 26%, compared to shipments achieved in 2014, the only SMSL member to show a decline in shipment growth, year-on-year.
As a result, Yingli Green is expected to drop two SMSL ranking positions this year to sixth position and in the global PV manufacturing rankings to fall even further.
Having been capacity constrained in 2015, Hanwha Q CELLS has not changed shipment guidance for the year, which would have seen them ranked in sixth position.
However, the fall by Yingli Green has moved Q CELLS up the rankings to fifth but shipment momentum should not be discounted as it is the highest of all the SMSL players in 2015 at around 55% shipment growth rate, compared to 2014.
Also experiencing strong growth but capacity constrained is JA Solar. The company has also retained shipment guidance for the year at 3.6GW to 4.0GW, demonstrating a shipment growth rate in the middle of guidance of around 43%, year-on-year. Shipment growth in 2014 was around 100%, indicating that capacity expansions couldn’t keep pace with shipment momentum this year, compared to the previous year.
Unfortunately for JA Solar, capacity constraints are expected to lead to the company falling from third-ranked earlier in the year to fourth at the end of the year.
The reason for the rankings decline is due to the shipment momentum being generated by JinkoSolar.
JinkoSolar has increased shipment guidance in both the second and third quarters of 2015. The company had initially guided shipments to be in the range of 3.3GW to 3.8GW for the year, then revised that figure to 4.0GW to 4.5GW and in Q3 set the low end of guidance at 4.2GW, while retaining the high-end figure at 4.5GW. The company is therefore expected to demonstrate year-on-year shipment growth of around 43% in 2015, compared to actual shipment growth in 2014 of around 65%.
JinkoSolar’s strategy of purchasing solar cells and modules to meet demand that exceeds in-house capacity, despite expansions, has been a key to the sustained growth rates and ranking position moving from fifth to third.
Unchanged from earlier expected rankings, Canadian Solar will be the second largest PV manufacturer in 2015. The company initially guided module shipments for 2015 to be in the range of 4.0GW to 4.3GW but revised upwards in Q3 to 4.6GW to 4.9GW, solidifying its previous ranking.
Again, Canadian Solar is punching above its nameplate capacity levels by purchasing cells and modules from third parties to meet demand and generate expected growth of around 48% year-on-year.
No surprises though as to the leader. Trina Solar, despite its market position is expected to increase module shipments by approximately 50% in 2015. The company has also revised shipment guidance upwards in both Q2 and Q3 to reach 5.5GW to 5.6GW for the year, up from initial guidance of 4.4GW to 4.6GW.
Trina Solar has also been purchasing cells and modules from third parties to meet demand, despite major capacity expansions this year.
As a result, Trina Solar will retain top ranking for the second consecutive year. The expectations are that Trina Solar is targeting module shipments in the 7GW range for 2016, potentially securing a third consecutive leadership position, a remarkable feat and one that would break the consecutive two-year curse that afflicted Suntech, First Solar and Yingli Green in the last 10 years.
Link: http://www.pv-tech.org/editors-blog/super-league-shipments-shift-reveals-top-5-manufactures-in-2015
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Advances in PV cell technology in 2016 to remain a luxury, not a necessity
Nov 27, 2015 | PV Tech
By Finlay Colville
As most of the big-six 'Silicon Module Super League' (SMSL) members announce plans to increase cell capacity during 2016, the question of technology type remains highly important in terms of panel power ratings expected to be shipped over the next 12 months.
This article examines new forecasts for the technologies expected to be utilised by the SMSL in 2016, with the significance of these six c-Si manufacturers becoming all the more pertinent, given the fact that the SMSL is now expected to account for almost 50% of all modules shipped to the end-market next year.
Further inputs are included here from new research undertaken by our in-house research team at PV Tech’s parent company Solar Media, ahead of the release of the PV Technology & Manufacturing quarterly report in January 2016, and the inaugural PVCellTech conference in Malaysia in March 2016. What factors are driving PV technology choice today?
Before we look at the specific plans from the SMSL for cell manufacturing next year, it is useful to stand back and look at the market-driven factors that are now playing a role in cell technology, in addition to the economy of scale now accumulated with the leading technology type by market share – p-type multi.
An interesting observation right now is the uptick in capex for upstream manufacturing, consisting of new fabs, new production lines, upgrades, debottlenecking and routine maintenance. We have now modelled out our expected capex allocations for 2016 for each of the SMSL, and collated this in the figure below.
Capex from the Silicon Module Super League is expected to trend at similar levels in 2016, compared to 2015, at about the $1 billion level, dominated by cell contributions.
The fact that capex from the SMSL in 2016 is close to 2015 levels echoes much of the sentiment from these manufacturers about the need to retain fiscal prudence next year, the competing capex demand from projects business and the ongoing ability to remain partially asset-light.
Indeed, being asset-light, or being flexible with in-house and outsourced (or as many seem to call it these days, external OEM partnering) is actually providing the buffer for the SMSL in pushing shipment levels up quickly from one quarter to another. In fact, so long as there exists adequate qualified capacity from third-parties – and assuming these companies don’t have the end-market presence to ensure their own badged modules can reach the final customer – we have a situation where the SMSL can effectively use these companies as a safety net to avoid chronic over-production/supply.
Consequently, this is allowing most (but not quite all) of the SMSL to run at fairly constant factory utilisation rates from one quarter to another, and then use the outsourced part as the variable supply to pull in or push out module supply needs. The only downside, which is far less risky than trying to produce everything in-house, is the outsourcing cost penalty that can pull down gross margins by a few percentage points, depending on the balance of in-house to third-party.
Collectively this feature is ensuring that the SMSL are not running the risk of repeating the mistakes made during the last capex upturn, when capacity was being added like there was no tomorrow.
In fact, while capacity announcements are running at multi-gigawatt-per-month levels across the industry, what we don’t have is the Chinese deluge that we saw in 2009-2011 across literally hundreds of largely technology-agnostic entrants.
The other key takeaway from the capex of the SMSL is the lack of spending going into ingot and wafer manufacturing. This is partly due to the much lower in-house ingot and wafer capacity and production of the SMSL, but also because the expansions of the past few years have been very much focused on growing cell and module capacities.
The other broader industry driver here of course is the role of GCL-Poly as a somewhat de-facto JV supplier of wafers in China to most of the SMSL and whose capacity scales would make it rather futile for any of the Chinese funded SMSL players to challenge directly.
In fact, the GCL-Poly issue and relationship with the big-six SMSL is also having a strong impact on cell technologies for 2016, and in some ways, GCL-Poly is probably more influential in cell manufacturing roadmaps than some of the multi-gigawatt capacity companies to whom it is supplying its wafers.
To put this in perspective, in recent years improved wafer quality has been responsible for around 50% of average annual cell efficiency gains of 0.5 to 0.9% on multi c-Si cells. Still no need to change from p-type multi production
When we look at cell technologies produced in-house from the SMSL in 2016, the picture is similar to that seen this year, with the only real change being the uptick in PERC from a select group of the SMSL.
Cell technology from the SMSL in 2016 is expected to look similar to 2015, with the share from multi PERC increasing.
While wafer supply, from the likes of GCL-Poly is certainly having a major influence in the market-share from p-type multi (standard or PERC based), there are perhaps other factors of more relevance in preventing any immediate switch to mono (n-type or p-type substrate based).
The first question to ask is: why change? Here we have to recall that most solar manufacturers are still in recovery mode, with few now falling into the pure-play upstream manufacturing bucket. And from a cost standpoint, all-in in-house costs are still lowest for p-type multi and starting to trend at figures below 40c/W. Set against the current blended module ASP levels of 55-60c/W, you can see quickly that the resulting manufacturing gross margins are looking much better than during the past few years.
So long as the outsourcing cost penalty can be kept to a few pennies, the need for any wholesale technology change (not to mention the extra capex and downtime resulting) is simply not there. Couple this with the ‘sold-out’ status of most module suppliers for the first six months of 2016, and doing anything other than routine maintenance is just not an option.
Consequently, with the exception of Hanwha Q-CELLS, it may simply be an easier option for other members of the SMSL to add PERC capacity in new production lines planned, most of which are likely to be located in Malaysia and Thailand in 2016, leaving Chinese lines producing standard cells largely for the domestic market in China until there is a real need to upgrade these lines.
The final figure below shows the expected distribution of in-house cell and module capacities for the big-six SMSL across 2016, where the capacity levels are effective annualised figures, not year-end nameplate values. This figure breaks down cell and module capacity/production to China and non-China fab locations also.
Increased overseas cell capacity and production is expected from the SMSL in 2016, much based on PERC, and destined for use in module shipments to the US and Europe.
In fact, if we were to include the OEM capacity (friendly outsourcing) that some of the SMSL are relying upon, the percentage of non-China module contributions would be much higher. Either way, 2016 is probably going to the year that overseas cell production finally became a reality for the SMSL, having been floated as a concept as far back as 2012 when the initial US anti-dumping case first impacted on cell manufacturing location. Module power ratings still on the up
Another factor preventing any need to perform any major technology changes to cell lines can be seen when looking at the strong increases in module power ratings over the past few years. A few years back, it was the norm for 60-cell, six-inch p-type multi cells to be packaged into modules that had nominal power ratings at about 235W. Fast forward to 2015, and this has increased to 260-265W, without any major changes to process flow configurations.
Module power ratings have increased due to better wafer quality (mainly ingot casting optimisation), higher quality paste for cell production combined with higher aspect ratio front printing, and the move to multi busbar forming at the module stage.
Adding PERC is still probably the most viable short-term play for cell makers to move 60-cell p-type module powers to 275-280W, but some final words of caution do need to come into play here.
This switch is far from simple, and only one company today – Hanwha Q-CELLS – has succeeded in doing this, with the mass production implementation coming after about a decade of R&D into PERC that dates back to the Q CELLS days and having an in-house R&D team that was almost bigger than the collective R&D efforts of the whole of China and Taiwan at that time.
Whether the Chinese members of the SMSL can do the PERC change on multi now may however be a moot question: most simply don’t need to do this in 2016. Therefore, the big shift to PERC for the SMSL may not arrive until 2017 or 2018, by which time it will be fascinating to see what alternatives are in the mix, other than what we see today in rear-side cell processing.
All these topics are in fact set to dominate the PVCellTech conference in Malaysia in March 2016, with senior technologists from the SMSL lined up to present technology roadmaps and challenges, in addition to talks from almost every other leading cell manufacturer in the industry today, including SunPower, Panasonic, SolarWorld, REC Solar, Sunrise Global, and many others. Complementing this will be invited presentations from the key equipment and materials suppliers for cell manufacturing, and from some of the new n-type activities set to add to the competitive mix in the next few years.
Link: http://www.pv-tech.org/editors-blog/advances-in-pv-cell-technology-in-2016-to-remain-a-luxury-not-a-necessity
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NREL: Economic potential of renewable power rising fast
Nov 26, 2015 | PV Magazine
By Edgar Meza
Renewable energy generation has become economically viable in many parts of the United States due to the recent rapid decline in the costs of technology, according to a new report by the U.S. Energy Department’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).
The report, Estimating Renewable Energy Economic Potential in the United States: Methodology and Initial Results, presents results from NREL analysts who applied a new geospatial analysis method to estimate the economic potential of several renewable resources, including PV, wind, geothermal, biomass and hydropower. Economic potential is a metric that quantifies the amount of economically viable renewable generation that is available at a specific location. The falling renewable energy technology costs are expected to help renewable energy continue to grow across the U.S.
"This report presents one method for estimating economic potential," NREL energy analyst Philipp Beiter said. "The initial results are intended to explore this method as a screening metric for understanding the economic viability of renewable generation at a detailed geospatial resolution."
Looking at the potential at developable sites, the report finds that when the social cost of carbon is taken into account, renewable generation is economically viable in many parts of the country. At 2014 costs, the technologies combine for 820 terawatt-hours of estimated economic potential beyond the generation from renewable energy facilities already in operation. This additional potential is equivalent to nearly 20% of total U.S. annual electricity generation from all sources in 2014.
"Declining renewable technology costs are a significant driver for these results," Beiter said. "Economic potential has more than tripled as a result of cost reductions already realized for renewable generation technologies between 2010 and 2014, particularly for wind and solar PV."
The trend is likely to continue as the U.S. deploys more renewable energy and continues driving down costs. With projected renewable energy costs in 2020 and 2030, economic potential increases considerably. “At 2020 costs, economic potential equals almost half of U.S. annual electricity demand, and 2030 costs bring that number to over 75% with the potential for cost-effective renewable energy to be generated in every state in the country.”
NREL adds that as the study illustrates, “with continued cost improvements, renewable energy’s potential in the United States may not quite be unlimited, but it certainly is enormous.”
Link: http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/nrel--economic-potential-of-renewable-power-rising-fast_100022157/#axzz3sgdNNF4d
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Brazil approves ‘historic’ net metering revision
Nov 25, 2015 | PV Tech
By Tom Kenning
Brazil’s energy regulator National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) has approved an “historic” revision of the country’s net metering scheme for small-scale renewable energy systems, making it amongst the most forward-thinking countries in this sector, according to Rodrigo Sauaia, the director of Brazil’s solar industry association, Absolar.
The revision, which has been scheduled since the net metering regulations were first implemented several years ago, came about after the realisation that the number of installed small-scale distributed generation energy systems is still relatively small compared to Brazil’s potential.
There are currently 1,300 installed systems connected to the grid of which 96% is solar PV, said Sauaia.
Under the revision, Brazil now has ‘virtual net metering’, which means any company or consumer can install an energy system at different points of electricity use and still get credits, which can be used to abate consumption costs on another unit.
Sauaia said this was already in place, but the revision clears up areas of doubt as companies and subsidiary companies are now able to share their energy under net metering.
He added: “This scheme has been fundamental for the growth of PV in small-scale in several parts of the US and in other countries.”
Credits are now also valid for five years instead of three years.
Furthermore this “landmark” revision from ANEEL creates a new business opportunity; now any group of clients can invest together in a single PV system for example and receive a share of the electricity generated and reduce their consumption from the grid, at a level proportional to the financial resources each entity has invested in the system.
Sauaia said: “This is an important way to give scale and to multiply interests in distributed solar.”
Systems up to 5MW can now also participate in the net metering scheme, up from just 1MW previously.
Finally Sauaia said there have been beneficial structural changes in the distribution area. Now the 63 distribution companies in Brazil will have three different power classes with three different standardised forms that will be used throughout the whole country.
Sauaia added: “In this way Brazil is also cutting the red tape significantly by standardising procedures for connecting the systems and for making new requirements for connections into the grid.”
There is now also a provision that the subscription processes for net metering systems delivered by distribution companies must only be done online and digitally by 2017, which will increase speed and reduce costs for all parties involved.
ANEEL predicts around 1.2 million consumer units will be installed in Brazil by 2024, totaling 4.5GW of installed capacity.
Sauaia concluded: “This is a massive improvement to the net metering system, incorporating several of the international best practices and this puts Brazil really into the forefront of public regulations in support of the development of small-scale renewable energy connection to the grid.”
“It also shows that Brazil as a government is starting to put into action what it has been sharing as words in preparation to COP21. Therefore the country is not only committing to reducing its carbon footprint and emissions but it is also putting plans into action that will make this happen.”
Over the last six months Brazilian states have gradually started to introduce an ICMS tax exemption for net metering from distributed generation solar PV. Rio de Janeiro became the seventh state to do this earlier this month.
Link: http://www.pv-tech.org/news/brazil-approves-historic-net-metering-revision
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Forum Solarpraxis: It's all political for Europe's big two solar powers
Nov 26, 2015 | PV Magazine
By Ian Clover
The three year storage subsidy extension revealed today by German Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy official Volker Hoppenbrock at the 16th Forum Solarpraxis in Berlin will likely mean Germany regains top spot as Europe’s largest solar market in 2016, Daniel Roca, Panasonic’s U.K. country manager, told pv magazine.
The likely extension of the subsidies for German storage has been warmly welcomed by attendees at the Forum. Previously, it had been confirmed that Germany would end the scheme on December 31, 2015, but Hoppenbrock’s announcement represents a complete u-turn that will likely support “moderate” growth of Germany’s solar industry.
“The extension is three years, rather than just a 12-month extension, which will give the market renewed confidence,” said Roca. “This will lead to a moderate increase in installations compared to 2015, casting away some of the uncertainty that had been clouding the future of the residential market in particular.”
Next year will see growth in Germany’s solar market continue to shift away from commercial and increasingly towards residential, where the emergence of community-based solar sharing schemes will prove a further boon for the sector, Roca added.
UK plays it political
While the German government was extending a storage-themed olive branch to its solar sector, the U.K.’s Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) continued to obfuscate its message.There had been confusion earlier this week over whether there proposed changes to the U.K. feed-in tariff (FIT) will be delayed for perhaps three months. The proposal to slash the FIT by as much as 87% for residential solar was due to take effect form January 1, 2016, but DECC has since stated that it is reviewing the 55,000 responses received from its consultation period and would only implement the changes after 40 parliamentary days have passed.
In governmental terms, this would mean that the FIT cuts may not be enacted until March 2016 – providing a de facto three months’ grace period for the residential and commercial sectors.
The forthcoming COP21 UN Climate Change Summit in Paris may have played on the minds of British politicians eager to not project to the world a negative image of the country’s renewable energy strategy, suggested Roca.
“The timing of this delay does seem convenient. Paris is a huge pressure point for the U.K. government. They do not want to go there with a bad image, particular in regards to solar, which is really well-received by the British public,” he said.
This possible delay in the reduction of the FIT is creating more uncertainty in the U.K. solar market, but Roca is confident that regardless of the exact details, the first quarter of 2016 is likely to be a bumper one for U.K. installation rates.
“It is pretty clear that there will be a huge rush out towards March, maybe April, and it looks likely that installation rates for the first quarter will exceed levels seen in Q1 2015.” This year, the first three months of the year saw more than 2.3 GW of solar PV capacity added in the U.K.
Further ahead, added Roca, if the FIT cuts are enacted as severely as proposed, then the U.K. residential and small-scale commercial markets could be reduced by as much as 80% - shrinking the U.K. solar market to the levels of Switzerland and Italy, and ushering Germany back to the top of the podium once more.
Link: http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/forum-solarpraxis--its-all-political-for-europes-big-two-solar-powers_100022159/#axzz3sgdNNF4d
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