Preview Newsletter
PM ACC Clips Report - August 27, 2018
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Trump Announces "a Much More Fair" Trade Deal with Mexico
Aug 27, 2018 | Houston Chronicle
By James Osborne
The United States and Mexico have reached a preliminary agreement to overhaul the North American Free Trade Agreement, President Donald Trump announced at the White House Monday. -
Trump 'Terminating' NAFTA as Focus Turns to Canada
Aug 27, 2018 | E&E Greenwire
By Hannah Northey
President Trump today announced he's scrapping the North American Free Trade Agreement and pursuing a new trade deal with Mexico — a move that raises questions about Canada's involvement. -
Senate Adopts Funding for Cancer Cluster Guide
Aug 27, 2018 | Inside EPA
The Senate has approved $1 million in funds that will allow the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to craft guidelines for how federal agencies should investigate potential cancer clusters, a measure that was required by language in the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) revision that then-President Barack Obama signed in 2016. -
ACSH Explains: What's The Story On N-Methylpyrrolidone?
Aug 27, 2018 | American Council on Science and Health
By Michael L. Dourson
The Frank R. Lautenberg Chemical Safety for the 21st Century Act amends the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) and was signed into law June 22, 2016. -
San Francisco Bans Single-Use Food Service Ware Containing PFAS
Aug 27, 2018 | Chemical Watch
By Tammy Lovell
San Francisco is set to ban the sale or use of single-use food service ware made with perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). -
Kan. Kept Residents in the Dark About Contamination
Aug 27, 2018 | Wichita Eagle (In E&E Greenwire)
By Katherine Burgess
In 2011, Kansas found that dry cleaning chemicals had tainted groundwater in a Wichita suburb. -
Strength in Numbers: Diversifying America’s Petrochemical Industry Bolsters Security
Aug 27, 2018 | The Hill - E2 Wire
By Jerry James
Major weather events in recent years have demonstrated a growing need for diversifying America’s petrochemical industry. -
Interactive: US Gulf Petchem Boom Made Harvey the First Global Hurricane
Aug 27, 2018 | ICIS
By Al Greenwood
Powerful hurricanes have hit the US Gulf Coast in the past, but Hurricane Harvey was the first to strike after petrochemical producers began a wave of expansion projects in the region, making the storm the first to have significant effects on global petrochemical markets. -
PHMSA Alerts LNG Export Developers to Expanded Role in Reviews
Aug 27, 2018 | Natural Gas Intelligence
By David Bradley
The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration is now responsible for evaluating the compliance with siting requirements of proposed liquefied natural gas export projects, the agency said in letters sent to developers this month. -
Confronting Cyber Attacks to the US Electricity Grid
Aug 27, 2018 | Real Clear Energy
By Tim Walberg
The U.S. electricity grid that powers our homes, businesses, and entire economy is increasingly under attack from hostile actors. These threats to our energy sector pose enormous risks to our national and economic security. -
FRA Releases Second Quarter Update on PTC Systems
Aug 27, 2018 | Transportation Today
By Melina Druga
The Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) recently released a self-reported status update for the second quarter of the year on railroads’ progress toward implementing positive train control (PTC) systems. -
EPA Asks Court to Keep Litigation over Obama Rule on Ice
Aug 27, 2018 | E&E Greenwire
By Niina Heikkinen
EPA is asking a federal appeals court to keep holding off litigation on the Clean Power Plan now that it has released a draft replacement rule. -
NJ Governor Vetoes Plastic Bag Fee
Aug 27, 2018 | The Hill - E2 Wire
By Timothy Cama
New Jersey’s Democratic governor on Monday vetoed a bill that would have put a five-cent fee on the purchases of plastic grocery bags. -
Climate Forecast: More Fires, Fewer Beaches, Stressed Grid
Aug 27, 2018 | E&E Greenwire
By Anne C. Mulkern
Two-thirds of Southern California beaches could disappear and the size of wildfires in the state could nearly double by 2100 because of climate change, a report released today said.
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Trump Announces "a Much More Fair" Trade Deal with Mexico
Aug 27, 2018 | Houston Chronicle
By James Osborne
The United States and Mexico have reached a preliminary agreement to overhaul the North American Free Trade Agreement, President Donald Trump announced at the White House Monday.
"It's been a long time, and this is something that is very special for our manufacturers and our farmers," Trump said. "It makes it a much more fair bill."
The two sides had been locked in negotiations for close to a year on a wide rage of issues, including car manufacturing and the sale of agricultural products. Trump was short on the details on the new agreements, but he said he planned to do away with the name NAFTA and rename the pact, the "United States-Mexico trade agreement."
"[NAFTA] has a bad connotation in the United States," he said. "It was a rip off. It was a horrible deal for our country."
RELATED STORY: As Trump, Peña Nieto rush to finish NAFTA, oil industry faces loss of key protection
The Trump administration plans to submit a final deal to Congress by Friday. With the required 90-day review period, Congress could complete its review before Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto leaves office Dec. 1, to be replaced by the populist President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
In recent months the United States, Canada and Mexico have focused on a relatively short list of negotiating points.
Among them was NAFTA's existing investment protection rules - known as Investor State Dispute Settlement, or ISDS. Championed by oil companies and corporate America at-large, the provision allows companies to challenge foreign government policies through an independent arbiter and win compensation for losses caused by those policies.
Trump has pushed to eliminate the arbitration provision, arguing that it impinges on U.S. sovereignty.
For now Canada is not in the trade agreement. But on a phone call with Trump, broadcast live on television, Pena Nieto said he hoped to see Canada become part of the pact as well.
Trump said he planned to begin negotiations with Canada "immediately," to either add them to the agreement with Mexico or sign on to a new agreement with the United States.
"One way or another we'll have a deal with Canada. It'll either be a tariff on cars or it'll be a negotiated deal. Frankly, a tariff on cars is a much easier way to go. Perhaps, the other would be much better for Canada."
https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Trump-announces-trade-deal-with-Mexico-13185134.php
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Trump 'Terminating' NAFTA as Focus Turns to Canada
Aug 27, 2018 | E&E Greenwire
By Hannah Northey
President Trump today announced he's scrapping the North American Free Trade Agreement and pursuing a new trade deal with Mexico — a move that raises questions about Canada's involvement.
Following a call with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, Trump said he's reached an "agreement" on trade with that country. He wants to call it the "United States-Mexico trade agreement."
The president also said he would be speaking with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau soon and signaled he could turn to punitive auto tariffs if negotiations fizzle.
"I'll be terminating the existing deal and going into this deal," Trump said. "One way or the other, we'll have a deal with Canada. It'll either be a tariff on cars or it'll be a negotiated deal."
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said at the Oval Office event that the deal would likely be finalized at the end of November and that he plans to submit a letter to Congress on Friday that will trigger a 90-day waiting period required by U.S. trade law before any pact can be signed.
Trump told reporters that Peña Nieto, who spoke by speakerphone, worked closely with Mexico's president-elect, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who is slated to be inaugurated Dec. 1 and stands to inherit the deal if it's not signed earlier.
"The president felt it was important the president-elect liked what he was seeing," Trump said of Peña Nieto, adding that Mexico has agreed to boost agriculture purchases from the United States.
Trump administration officials had reportedly huddled in recent weeks with their Mexican counterparts to hash out details that could affect the energy sector, but few details are known.
Environmental groups have highlighted the far-reaching ramifications the deal could have on energy and climate policy and have called for a shift to clean energy and imposing stricter environmental regulations abroad (E&E Daily, April 17).
James Lucier, managing director at Capital Alpha, said he's skeptical Canada will agree to a trilateral deal unless the Trump administration lifts the threat of automobile tariffs and makes concessions.
Lucier suggested Canada may have more leverage by waiting to work with Obrador and rejecting any arbitrary deadline the Trump administration decides to set.
"Having a Democratic Congress next year may also give the Canadians leverage to the extent that Trump will be weaker then," said Lucier. "The strategic brilliance of the U.S. and Mexico teaming together against Canada may look less impressive when in fact Canada and Mexico are teaming together against the United States in another week or so."
https://www.eenews.net/greenwire/2018/08/27/stories/1060095293
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Senate Adopts Funding for Cancer Cluster Guide
Aug 27, 2018 | Inside EPA
The Senate has approved $1 million in funds that will allow the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to craft guidelines for how federal agencies should investigate potential cancer clusters, a measure that was required by language in the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) revision that then-President Barack Obama signed in 2016.
The Senate Aug. 23 approved S. 3158, which funds the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and several other agencies for fiscal year 2019. Included in the bill is an amendment sponsored by Sens. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) and Mike Crapo (R-ID) that provides $1 million for CDC to craft guidelines for “investigating potential cancer clusters.”
The requirement stems from Trevor's Law, which was originally introduced in 2011 by Crapo and then-Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) in response to suspected disease clusters, including a suspected cancer cluster in Idaho and a suspected cluster of birth defects in Kettleman City, CA.
The original bill sought to give EPA new power to investigate and address potential environmental causes of disease clusters -- a linkage that is often challenging to prove. It was later named for Trevor Schaefer, a young brain cancer survivor from McCall, ID, but the bill failed to advance because of Republican concerns over giving EPA more authority.
Eventually, Trevor's Law was successfully attached to TSCA reform, as section 21 of the revised law. But the language directs HHS, rather than EPA, to act. The language in TSCA directs the HHS secretary to develop “criteria for designation of potential cancer clusters” as well as “guidelines for investigation of potential cancer clusters.”
The statute then directs HHS, with discretion, to coordinate with state, local and federal agencies, including EPA, to respond upon receiving a request for assistance in investigating a cancer cluster from a state or local health agency.
But Donnelly says the Trump administration has so far failed to implement the law's requirements. “For the community of Franklin, Indiana ... Trevor’s Law is the type of federal support they need today as they work with the state to seek answers to reports that nearly 50 children have been diagnosed with various types of cancers in the last 8 years,” Donnelly said on the Senate floor Aug. 22. “Unfortunately, for these families … Trevor’s Law has not yet been implemented.”
An Aug. 23 statement from Donnelly says he has been pressing the Administration to fully implement Trevor’s Law as it “could be valuable in investigating the potential cancer clusters in communities such as Johnson County[, IN].”
The Environmental Defense Fund in an Aug. 23 statement praised the passage of the amendment, and applauded Donnelly and Crapo's “work to support communities facing potential cancer clusters and to strengthen Trevor’s Law.”
https://insideepa.com/daily-feed/senate-adopts-funding-cancer-cluster-guide
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ACSH Explains: What's The Story On N-Methylpyrrolidone?
Aug 27, 2018 | American Council on Science and Health
By Michael L. Dourson
The Frank R. Lautenberg Chemical Safety for the 21st Century Act amends the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) and was signed into law June 22, 2016. It created a mandatory requirement for EPA to evaluate existing chemicals with clear and enforceable deadlines, to do so in a transparent fashion, and to do so using risk-based chemical assessments rather than rely on simple epidemiological correlations.
EPA selected the first 10 chemicals to undergo risk evaluation under the amended TSCA and to make those understandable for the public, the American Council on Science and Health is producing risk-based evaluations of each, which will then be compiled into a free downloadable book for consumers and policy makers.
What is N-Methylpyrrolidone?
N-methylpyrrolidone (NMP), also known as n-methyl-2-pyrrolidone or 1-methyl-2-pyrrolidinone and colloquially as Methylpyrrolidone, is a colorless to slightly yellow liquid with a slight amine or “fishy” odor. It is heavier than water and has a flash point of 199 degrees Fahrenheit. NMP is an organic compound and its chemical structure is very simple, consisting of a 5-membered carbon ring where one part of the ring includes a nitrogen atom (molecular formula of C5H9NO, and in the image). For more see US National Library of Medicine’s Toxnet database, 2018a.
Exposure To N-Methylpyrrolidone
If NMP is released into the atmosphere, it will likely exist as a mixture of gas and liquid (or vapor). In air, NMP can be expected to dissolve into water droplets. However, since NMP has a low vapor pressure, this effectively limits its inhalation potential (EPA, 2018).
When released to water, NMP is not expected to bind to suspended solids or sediment in the water column and is not expected to readily evaporate from water (again because of its low vapor pressure). Because of this, NMP is expected to be highly mobile if released to soil, and it may evaporate (slowly) from soil surfaces or more likely migrate through soil and contaminate groundwater. In the environment, NMP is expected to be readily decomposed by bacteria or other living organisms and therefore is not expected to accumulate in the environment.
Humans may be exposed to NMP through inhalation and skin contact with liquid and vapor forms of NMP. Exposure may also occur through ingestion of mists that deposit in the nose, mouth and throat. Workers and occupational non-workers may be exposed to NMP in its manufacturing, production, formulation, handling, and application. Occupational non-users may also be exposed when they perform work in an area where NMP is present. Consumers may be exposed when using NMP-containing products, such as cleaning formulations, children’s toys, and textiles. Individuals may be exposed to NMP in the air from accidental releases from manufacturing, processing, distribution, and use, from its disposal in landfills where it may evaporate into the air or leach into groundwater, and from a small amount of volatilization of contaminated water during showering or bathing.
Populations living within or very near waste sites, or areas of heavy NMP use, might have an increased risk of exposure from contaminated media (air, water, or soil). However, no monitoring data have been identified for NMP in outdoor or indoor air, drinking water, surface water, sediment, or food. EPA estimated NMP concentration in ambient air to be approximately 0.41 mg/m3 using a model to estimate the exposure to populations located downwind of facilities reporting the highest NMP air releases based on 2015 Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) data (EPA, 2018).
Health Effects Of N-Methylpyrrolidone
NMP is well absorbed following inhalation, oral and dermal exposure in humans and animals. In laboratory animals, NMP is distributed throughout the body once absorbed, and is mostly metabolized to water-soluble compounds and excreted in the urine within 24 hours. In a limited number of humans, about two-thirds of the oral NMP dose administered and about one-quarter of the dose applied to the skin were excreted in the urine as metabolites and the rest as the parent compound.
Like exposure to any chemical, toxicity of NMP depends on the level to which one is exposed and the length of time of exposure. A well-documented case report that ruled out reasonable complicating factors provides some evidence that NMP may be toxic to the fetus. In this case report, a pregnant woman who was exposed to NMP by inhalation and dermal exposure lost her fetus at week 31 of pregnancy. Although the exposure levels were unknown, during week 16 of the pregnancy she reportedly cleaned up a spill of NMP that dissolved her latex gloves. She was ill for the next 4 days and experienced malaise, headache, nausea and vomiting. This case report appears to provide qualitative support for the NMP fetal toxicity that might come about from exposures to levels causing clinically evident toxicity in the mother.
In experimental animals, NMP has low toxicity following exposure to high levels over short time by inhalation, dermal exposure, and ingestion. When animals ingested NMP repeatedly at lower levels, adverse effects included changes in body weight, liver weight, neurotoxicity, and thymus atrophy. Long-term oral exposures in animals also caused increased incidence of large kidneys, kidneys diagnosed with chronic problems, fluid in the pleural cavity and small testes (Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 2013).
More severe effects have also been noted when experimental animals were exposed by inhalation, which also includes dermal and oral uptake (from licking of the fur). The effects included irritation of the respiratory tract, reduced body weight gain, less bone marrow growth, testicular effects, necrosis in the thymus, spleen and lymph nodes, and mortality. Repeated application of high doses of NMP to the skin of animals resulted in mortality without other signs of systemic toxicity. (Systemic toxicity occurs as a result of absorption and distribution of a toxicant to a site distant from its entry point. In contrast, local toxicity occurs at the site of entry (e.g., lungs, stomach) of a toxicant into the body.)
No data exist in humans on the potential of NMP to cause tumors. In experimental animals, NMP was not carcinogenic, although results in a feeding study in mice showed liver tumors at the highest dose tested. The specific strain of mice used is regarded as very sensitive for inducing liver tumors that do not involve a substance binding to DNA. Such tumors are not normally considered relevant for humans, particularly when NMP is not mutagenic, i.e., it does not change the genetic material, usually DNA, of an organism. (RIVM, 2013).
Reproduction and developmental toxicity studies were conducted in experimental animals following inhalation, oral and dermal exposures. NMP did not have any effects on fertility in any of these studies. Nor were effects observed to the developing fetus at the highest exposure level tested following inhalation exposure. However, in an oral reproduction toxicity study, NMP caused developmental toxicity, as was evidenced by a decrease in fetal weight as well as malformations, and these effects were noted at doses lower than those that caused maternal toxicity, indicating that maternal toxicity did not cause the developmental toxicity. Dermal exposure also resulted in reduced body weight gain in the females and developmental effects, including fewer pups born, reduced body weights, delayed ossification of bones, and increased malformation. Unlike after oral exposure, however, these fetal effects occurred at the same dermal dose as in the maternal animals.
EPA (2015, 2017), RIVM (2013), and OECD (2007) have more information on the health effects of NMP.
Methylpyrrolidone Safe Levels
The federal and state governments develop regulations and recommendations to protect public health. Regulations and recommendations are often expressed as a safe or virtually safe level, that is, a level of a substance in air, water, soil, or food that is not expected to cause any adverse health effect, even in people who are sensitive to the chemical’s effects.
These safe levels are usually based on information from experiments with animals (usually rodents) at much higher levels of the chemicals than humans would typically encounter. The higher animal exposures are used to see which adverse health occur. Scientists then conjecture what the adverse effects could possibly be in humans at a lower level of exposure. Scientists can then estimate the level that will most likely protect humans. Sometimes these safe levels differ among federal and state organizations because they used different assumptions for human exposure, different animal studies, or employ methods that differ slightly. Other times these recommendations differ because new science develops that suggests different levels are toxic or safe. Recommendations and regulations are also updated periodically as more information becomes available.
The only organization that has derived a safe level for NMP is the International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS, 2001; NLM, 2018b) for the inhalation and oral routes. These safe levels are referred to as the tolerable daily intake (TDI) the European Commission Scientific Committee on Food regulatory equivalent to acceptable daily intake (ADI) for the oral route and tolerable concentration (TC) for the inhalation route. (1)
IPCS derived a TDI of 0.6 mg/kg body weight/day, based on for decrease in body weight and body weight gain and lower food consumption and food efficiency. The TC of 0.3 mg/m3 for NMP was based on nasal irritation, effects on hematopoietic and lymphatic organs, and mortality. In contrast, among the effects caused by NMP, EPA selected decreased fetal body weights as a key endpoint for use in the risk calculation for chronic exposure. While EPA did not derive a safe dose for NMP, it estimated an internal dose that corresponds to the administered dose that resulted in the decreased fetal body weights. EPA may compare this internal or external dose to human exposures to assess the risk posed by NMP or use a safe dose as described below. (2)
Why Is EPA Looking At This Under The Lautenberg Chemical Safety Act?
EPA scientists are currently looking at the likely routes of exposure to NMP in the environment and will be developing exposure scenarios, or pathways, of how the public comes into contact with NMP. These exposure pathways will then be studied by EPA by comparing the amount of NMP exposure in the pathway to its safe or virtually safe level, or to the internal dose associated with decreased fetal body weights (as noted above).
If human exposure in the pathway is at or below this safe or virtually safe level, then NMP exposure from the pathway is not considered to be a human health concern. Small excesses of the safe or virtually safe dose are seldom cause for concern since these safety levels are developed from conservative assumptions, including the use of safety factors that tend to exaggerate risk and exposure pathways that tend to exaggerate exposure.
If exposure is above this safe or virtually safe level, then the pathway might be considered as a possible health concern; several pathways may be added together to suggest a health concern.
In either event, regulations might be developed to lessen the exposure of NMP from this pathway(s).
Controversy Over N-Methylpyrrolidone
Health impacts of NMP include developmental and reproductive toxicity, neurotoxicity, immunotoxicity, and liver and kidney toxicity. Reproductive/developmental effects are sensitive endpoints for evaluating the human health risks associated with NMP exposure and EPA demonstrated in its 2014 NMP risk assessment that current levels of exposure to NMP-containing paint strippers pose an unacceptably high risk of adverse developmental toxicity (fetal effects) associated with acute and chronic exposure to female workers and consumers of childbearing age.
Developmental studies involve multiple exposures given on the order of 10-15 days and EPA (1991) considers these studies as relevant to single exposures because some developmental effects, such as fetal loss, may result from a single exposure at a critical period in fetal development. A critical effect is the first adverse effects or its known precursor, that occurs as a dose rate increases. It is assumed that if the critical effect is prevented, then all subsequent adverse effects are prevented.
In contrast, according to RIVM (2013), the critical effects following oral exposure in animals are reductions in body weight gain and food consumption.
EPA and other regulatory bodies have not classified NMP as to its carcinogenicity in humans. Because the most sensitive non-cancer effect of NMP is considered by some authorities to be decreased fetal body weights in laboratory animals, EPA used a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to predict NMP doses across routes of exposure and from animals to humans. The model predicts an internal dose that is expected to be equivalent to the experimentally given dose. This internal dose is expected to cause the decreased fetal body weights in the laboratory animals and is used to compare to the human internal dose estimated from the occupational or consumer exposure pathway.
EPA is evaluating the pathways of exposure resulting from NMP consumer use. In the EPA (2015) risk assessment, dermal and inhalation exposures were assessed as the most likely exposure routes; however, there is a potential for oral exposure under some conditions of use. EPA also noted that consumers may purchase and use products primarily intended for commercial use. Therefore, waste streams associated with industrial and commercial use of NMP will also be a part of EPA’s evaluation.
EPA also expects to include, but not further analyze, exposures to humans, fish, aquatic invertebrates and algae from NMP releases to ambient surface water. EPA expects to include but not further analyze exposures to sediment-dwelling organisms during risk evaluation, as NMP is unlikely to accumulate in sediment. EPA does not plan to further analyze other land releases during risk evaluation, including those that may result from land application of biosolids, nor to further analyze NMP air releases or associated exposures to terrestrial wildlife, as inhalation exposure and bioaccumulation potential are expected to be low.
Likewise, EPA does not plan to further analyze human exposures that may result from inhalation of outdoor air containing NMP that was released from industrial and commercial facilities, since a first-tier screening analysis estimated a low potential exposure to populations located downwind from the facilities that reported the highest NMP air releases based on 2015 TRI data. Nor doe EPA plan to further analyze drinking water pathways, nor exposures associated with RCRA waste sites. This is because EPA has regular analytical processes to identify and evaluate drinking water contaminants of potential regulatory concern for public water systems under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) and has rules that govern the management and treatment, storage, and disposal of hazardous waste (i.e., Section 3004(a), Subtitle C).
Some of these exclusions may prove to be controversial.
https://www.acsh.org/news/2018/08/27/acsh-explains-whats-story-n-methylpyrrolidone-13360
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San Francisco Bans Single-Use Food Service Ware Containing PFAS
Aug 27, 2018 | Chemical Watch
By Tammy Lovell
San Francisco is set to ban the sale or use of single-use food service ware made with perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS).
Earlier this month, the California city’s mayor approved Ordinance 201-18, amending existing food service and packaging waste reduction laws.
The updated law will require single-use items used for prepared, takeout and leftover food – such as bowls, plates, trays, cups, lids, straws, utensils and napkins – to be ‘fluorinated chemical free’.
It also covers single-use food service ware accessories, such as condiment packets, chopsticks, cup sleeves, napkins, stirrers and toothpicks.
Restaurants, food retailers, vendors, city contractors and city departments will all be subject to the requirements, which come into force on 1 January 2020.‘Unnecessary action’
Jonathan Corley, a spokesperson for the chemical industry trade association FluoroCouncil, said the ban was "unnecessary, contrary to sound science and will provide no further benefits to public health or the environment."
The use of PFAS in food packaging is already thoroughly regulated by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Mr Corley told Chemical Watch, and the agency has determined the chemicals "are safe for their intended use".
They "help protect the quality and integrity of food, extend shelf life and help in the safe transportation and storage of food," he added.
But Gretchen Lee Salter, interim director of the NGO Safer States, praised San Francisco's "forward thinking" on the issue.
"Taking PFAS out of food packaging will not only prevent exposure during the use of the packaging but also after it is disposed, since they have been shown to leak into compost," she told Chemical Watch.
She called on other US cities and states to follow the example.Pressure on PFAS
San Francisco’s move comes as the use of PFAS in food contact materials (FCMs) faces mounting pressure.
In March, Washington became the first US state to pass a law prohibiting the substances in certain FCMs. The ban takes effect from 1 January 2022, subject to the availability of safer alternatives.
And New York has restricted state agency purchasing of food containers containing them.
The American Academy of Pediatrics named fluorinated chemicals as an "additive of most concern" in a July policy statement calling for increased regulation of food contact materials.
And in March, the industry-backed Food Safety Alliance for Packaging issued a guidance document, urging suppliers to avoid such substances as PFAS when alternatives exist.
Meanwhile, the NGO Mind the Store campaign is speaking with major food retailers to speed their removal from FCMs and will announce its progress in its ‘retailer report card' later this year.
Policies like San Francisco’s mark the "beginning of the end" for PFAS, said the NGO.
https://chemicalwatch.com/69909/san-francisco-bans-single-use-food-service-ware-containing-pfas
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Kan. Kept Residents in the Dark About Contamination
Aug 27, 2018 | Wichita Eagle (In E&E Greenwire)
By Katherine Burgess
In 2011, Kansas found that dry cleaning chemicals had tainted groundwater in a Wichita suburb.
For the next six years, the state Department of Health and Environment did not test nearby private wells or notify Haysville residents that perchloroethylene could be in their water.
Then, last year, the agency realized that instead of flowing away from drinking sources, contamination had been flowing toward a pocket of private drinking wells.
"They didn't let anyone know about the contamination, so we all continued to drink the water," said Joe Hufman, whose well contained the chemical at nearly 10 times the legal amount.
The delay resulted from a 1995 law designed to protect the dry cleaning industry from the costs of EPA intervention and cleanup. It instead levied a tax on dry cleaning chemicals to fund cleanups and capped a store's liability at $5,000.
The law directs the state not to look for dry cleaning contamination and to try to keep these sites off the Superfund list.
There are at least 22 similar sites where the state has not tested private well water.
Haysville connected about 200 homes to the city's water supply by this summer.
"There's never going to be enough money to do everything at once, so we have to prioritize," said Leo Henning, environment director at the state agency. "I think we've done a fairly good job of that. ... Right now, our main challenge — and where we're trying to get to — is making sure there are no Kansans drinking contaminated water" (Katherine Burgess, Wichita Eagle, Aug. 26). — NB
https://www.eenews.net/greenwire/2018/08/27/stories/1060095247
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Strength in Numbers: Diversifying America’s Petrochemical Industry Bolsters Security
Aug 27, 2018 | The Hill - E2 Wire
By Jerry James
Major weather events in recent years have demonstrated a growing need for diversifying America’s petrochemical industry.
A year ago this week, Hurricane Harvey hit Texas — and within six days, 27 trillion gallons of rain had fallen on the region. Winds reaching up to 135 mph tore through the nation’s fourth-largest city, devastating Houston and the Gulf Coast.
The hurricane “paralyzed” America’s largest petrochemical center, creating a profound ripple effect across the country.
The Gulf Coast is home to about 90 percent of the nation’s plastic-producing capacity. These plastics are the building blocks for a wide range of industrial and consumer goods, including the products we use on a daily basis — everything from pacemakers to pill coatings.
Following Harvey, roughly 60 percent of U.S. ethylene and propylene capacity — the most common components of plastic — went offline, impacting businesses across the country. As PetroChem Wire’s Kathy Hall explained to CNBC, “[Manufacturers] can’t make very much without them.”
Even here in Ohio, the lack of access to polypropylene (a product produced from propylene and another component of plastic) caused Little Tikes — a children’s toy maker — to change vendors when it encountered a 25 percent cost increase for resin because of the cut off supply. And Little Tikes is just one of the region’s manufacturers that relies heavily on petrochemical feedstock.
Lack of geographical diversity in our petrochemical industry is a valid concern that is not to be dismissed lightly, as the effects of storms such as Harvey demonstrated. Our ability to produce and manufacture the materials that are the backbone of our economy is a matter of security — a fact that U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Rick Perry shared in his recent testimony to Congress:
“As the governor of Texas, in August and September, I worried greatly about a Category 5 hurricane coming up the Houston ship line and devastating the petrochemical footprint that is a substantial amount of that industry for the United States,” he noted. “That is a national security issue.”
Fortunately, it’s a concern that’s being met with a cost-effective solution.
Efforts are under way to build additional petrochemical capacity outside of the Gulf Coast in the less hurricane-prone Appalachian Basin, or as it is starting to be renamed, the Shale Crescent USA.
Sitting atop the liquids-rich Utica and Marcellus shale reserves, the Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia tri-state area has an abundance of natural resources recoverable at costs below Gulf Coast equivalents. Ethane and other natural gas liquids (NGLs), including propane and butane, are ubiquitous in the basin — and production levels are climbing at an incredible pace.
According to the latest DOE report, the Shale Crescent region — which by itself would make the third-largest producing country behind the United States and Russia — will increase its NGL production by more than 700 percent in the decade from 2013 to 2023.
Beyond access to resources, petrochemical investment in the Appalachian Basin also is incredibly cost-effective. A new IHS Markit studyfound the Shale Crescent region will “provide a significant financial advantage” over the Gulf for companies investing in new petrochemical projects. For example, according to IHS, ethane costs are 32 percent lower in the region, with ethylene, the petrochemical derived from ethane, costing 23 percent less to produce.
Further, and perhaps even more importantly, 70 percent of the nation’s polyethylene market is within a day’s driving distance of the resources. This means that for the first time, the market and supply are within close proximity.
With the reduced delivery costs and low-cost NGL supply, a petrochemical plant located in the Shale Crescent USA would generate a four-times-higher net present value cash flow than a comparable investment in the Gulf Coast.
Both the DOE and IHS studies demonstrate the viability of Appalachia as a second petrochemical hub. This opportunity provides us the ability to responsibly, geographically diversify the industry.
Shell’s $6 billion cracker plant in Beaver, Pennsylvania, is the first step in this movement to expand the industry, and additional projects are under way. Our natural resources are providing the ability to complement our assets in the Gulf Coast with another energy hub in the East. In doing so, we can ensure a stronger national economy by securing the industry that drives it forward.
Jerry James is president of Artex Oil Company in Marietta, Ohio. He is a co-founder of the Shale Crescent USA economic development initiative, which encourages business growth in the Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania region.
http://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/403252-strength-in-numbers-diversifying-americas-petrochemical-industry
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Interactive: US Gulf Petchem Boom Made Harvey the First Global Hurricane
Aug 27, 2018 | ICIS
By Al Greenwood
Powerful hurricanes have hit the US Gulf Coast in the past, but Hurricane Harvey was the first to strike after petrochemical producers began a wave of expansion projects in the region, making the storm the first to have significant effects on global petrochemical markets.
The petrochemical industry did a remarkable job of restarting production plants after Harvey, especially when compared with Hurricane Ike, the last big storm that hit Houston in 2008.
However, despite all of their preparation, companies still shut down plants and declared force majeure as a result of Harvey. Tightened supplies led to persistently higher prices for petrochemicals.
Hurricanes are still going to strike the Gulf Coast, and companies are still not finished expanding capacity in the region. The next major storm could be even more disruptive.
This vulnerability extends beyond petrochemicals. The US is now a large exporter of petrochemical feedstocks such as crude oil, ethane and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The country was exporting none of these products in significant amounts during Ike or Hurricane Katrina, another big storm that hit Louisiana in the late summer of 2005.
On the one-year anniversary of Harvey, it is clear that companies around the world will be vulnerable to what happens on the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane Harvey made landfall late on 25 August 2017 near Corpus Christi, Texas, according to the US National Weather Service.
By then, several ports, refineries and petrochemical plants had shut down in preparation for the storm.
Harvey then stalled in southeast Texas, producing enormous amounts of rain, the weather service said. Cedar Bayou in Houston received a total of 51.88 inches (131.8cm) of rain, setting a record in North America.
Some plants suffered flood damage.
At Arkema's plant in Crosby, Texas, trailers storing organic peroxides caught fire after the complex lost power.
Other plants were down briefly, but had to contend with logistical disruptions. In mid-October, Celanese's plant in Bay City, Texas, was relying on trucks and rail for deliveries because debris on the Colorado river prevented barges from accessing the site.
In the immediate aftermath of the storm, even those modes of transportation were out.
The map below shows the plants that suffered from disruptions as a result of Harvey (click on first tab labelled "Impacted by Harvey").
The disruptions extended well beyond the state of Texas. Right before Harvey, Mexichem and Occidental Chemical (OxyChem) had started up a cracker near Corpus Christi. That cracker provided Occidental with the ethylene needed to produce vinyl chloride monomer(VCM).
OxyChem then shipped that VCM to Mexichem's vinyl plants throughout the hemisphere.
The two companies shut down the cracker in anticipation of the storm. Mexichem would later declare force majeure on vinyl products made at its plants in Mexico, Colombia and the US. Those plants relied on the VCM shipments made possible by the cracker.
The storm had a significant effect on global prices for petrochemicals, according to the ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX). The index tracks the movement of 12 major petrochemicals and polymers.
The charts below show the month-to-month changes in the Global and US IPEX for August and September since 2011.
That winter-time increase was caused by unusually cold weather on the Gulf Coast, which again illustrates how weather in that region can affect prices around the world.
Although Harvey certainly affected petrochemical markets, when compared with previous hurricanes of similar magnitude such as Alice, the price escalation was lower, according to ICIS senior consultant James Ray.
This was due to the particular nature of Harvey and the widespread flooding that it caused, Ray said. These floods disrupted demand and logistics as well as supplies.
Prices rose by about 14%, driven primarily by higher crude oil. The hurricane's effect contributed up to 5.5% of this, as measured by tracking the US IPEX, he added.
This effect from the hurricane continued until March 2018. In other words, it took five months before prices returned to normal relative to crude oil.
The chart below compares the actual US IPEX to the typical IPEX as normally related to Brent.
Another factor that reportedly mitigated the price escalation was that producers were better prepared for Harvey than for past hurricanes, so that the damage was less, Ray said.
Still, refinery utilisation rates did not return to pre-Harvey levels until June 2018, demonstrating the long-term effects of such a storm, he said.
The table below compares refinery utilisation rates associated with Harvey and Rita, another powerful hurricane that shut down a similar number of refineries.
The Gulf Coast is no stranger to bad weather, but during the previous storms, the region was a very different place. Hurricanes Ike, Rita and Katrina made landfall before the advent of shale gas, which transformed the US' petrochemical industry, leading to a wave of new projects.
Before shale gas, the US chemical industry was in retreat.
Suddenly, the US had a growing supply of low-cost natural gas liquids (NGLs), the predominant feedstocks for the nation's crackers.
The technological advances that made shale gas possible were later applied to crude production, which led to a surge in oil production.
The result was an export boom in every category of hydrocarbons in the US, as shown in the table below. The statistics are listed in thousands of barrels per day. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is listed in millions of cubic feet.
Although exports for low density polyethylene (LDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) declined, that was more than offset by the increases in high density polyethylene (HDPE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and styrene.
That caused total exports by mass to rise by 36.5%. Methanol was excluded from the total because it was measured in litres, not in kilograms.
In one decade, the US became the world's largest exporter of ethane and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as well as a major source of crude oil and LNG.
For petrochemicals, companies such as LyondellBasell were quick to expand existing units, which allowed them to rapidly increase capacity to take advantage of the surge of cheap feedstock before the new plants could come online.
Other markets like PVC realised that the feedstock advantage in the US has given them a huge cost advantage in foreign markets. Exports exploded even though these companies added little new capacity for these products.
THE NEXT STORM
Hurricanes are not going away and companies are not done building new plants in the US.Already, companies have started up several plants since Harvey, with some units beginning operations just weeks after the storm.
The table below lists the start-up announcements made so far for the Gulf Coast region. Figures are in tonnes.
Companies are on track to start up more plants later this year on the Gulf Coast. Looking ahead, companies have announced plans to start up more than 30 individual units in the next 10 years.
Many of these plants are premised on exports, meaning that global markets will become even more vulnerable once these plants start up and when the next storm strikes.
The following map shows the plants that have started up in the months after Harvey and projects that are expected to being operations in the years ahead.
For Harvey, petrochemical companies did a tremendous job in responding to the storm by creating communication hubs to keep customers, employees, government and the public informed about their operations.
Companies helped employees recover from the storm so they could get back on their feet and return to work.
Still, plant outages and force majeure declarations will happen during future storms regardless of how well companies prepare.
That's because many of the causes of shutdowns are beyond the control of companies.
For ports, storms can make it too dangerous to allow ships to enter and leave. Bays as well as rivers leading to plants can become silted and filled with debris. Rail lines shut down. Roads become inundated.
Petrochemical companies cannot improve drainage, heighten roads or bolster rail lines. They can prepare for Mother Nature, but they cannot control it.
That preparation, once restricted to the US, will now spread around the world.
https://www.icis.com/resources/news/2018/08/27/10254237/interactive-us-gulf-petchem-boom-made-harvey-the-first-global-hurricane/
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PHMSA Alerts LNG Export Developers to Expanded Role in Reviews
Aug 27, 2018 | Natural Gas Intelligence
By David Bradley
The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration is now responsible for evaluating the compliance with siting requirements of proposed liquefied natural gas export projects, the agency said in letters sent to developers this month.
Access to full text unavailable – subscription required.
Story can be found here: http://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/115567-phmsa-alerts-lng-export-developers-to-expanded-role-in-reviews
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Confronting Cyber Attacks to the US Electricity Grid
Aug 27, 2018 | Real Clear Energy
By Tim Walberg
The U.S. electricity grid that powers our homes, businesses, and entire economy is increasingly under attack from hostile actors. These threats to our energy sector pose enormous risks to our national and economic security.
When the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) was organized in the late 1970s, Congress could not have possibly imagined the cybersecurity challenges we face today. While the “Internet of Things” has allowed our grid to become more resilient, reliable, and efficient, it has also created myriad new security challenges that are rapidly evolving on a daily basis. Both the federal government and energy industry have a shared responsibility to ensure we are prepared for these challenges. In Congress, we are taking steps to modernize DOE to respond to the new realities of the 21st Century.
A core part of the agency’s mission is securing our nation’s critical electric infrastructure and other energy systems. As we’ve seen in recent years—with the growth of digital communications, the increased sophistication of hackers, and the complicated interconnections throughout our energy systems—DOE’s role has only become even more important.
With this in mind, Congressman Bobby Rush, the ranking Democratic member of the Energy Subcommittee, and I introduced H.R. 5174, the Energy Emergency Leadership Act. Our legislation is a bipartisan and practical amendment to update DOE’s decades-old core statute, the Department of Energy Organization Act. It elevates the energy security and emergency functions to a senior point person in agency leadership, reflecting its strategic importance across the agency, government, and nation.
Elevating these responsibilities to a single Assistant Secretary will give them full attention and promote streamlined intergovernmental and interagency communication. It will also encourage better coordination and more efficient information sharing with industry leaders, which will enhance DOE’s ability to appropriately and quickly address cybersecurity threats and other energy-related emergencies.
In addition, this leadership position will be tasked with ensuring we have effective planning, response and restoration capabilities when man-made and natural disasters disrupt our energy supplies—something the tragic weather last year on the Gulf Coast and in Puerto Rico put in sharp relief.
Secretary of Energy Rick Perry recognizes the importance of fortifying our cyber infrastructure and has created a new outward facing Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security and Emergency Response. Our bipartisan legislation compliments the Secretary’s effort, but it also recognizes that this energy emergency mission will remain vital to the nation for years to come. To ensure continued leadership through future administrations, this mission should be codified in the Department of Energy Organization Act. Doing so will also enhance accountability at the agency and allow the proper congressional oversight of such critical daily functions.
Under the leadership of Chairman Greg Walden, the Energy and Commerce Committee has made it a priority to be forward thinking and modernize approaches to 21st Century threats. In the digital age, strengthening our cyber defense capabilities is more important than ever. Given the role electricity plays in our daily lives, and overall wellbeing as a society, we need a robust strategy to protect our energy grid before it’s too late.
U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg represents Michigan’s 7th Congressional District and is a member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2018/08/27/confronting_cyber_attacks_to_the_us_electricity_grid.html
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FRA Releases Second Quarter Update on PTC Systems
Aug 27, 2018 | Transportation Today
By Melina Druga
The Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) recently released a self-reported status update for the second quarter of the year on railroads’ progress toward implementing positive train control (PTC) systems.
As of June 30, 15 railroads have installed all of the PTC system hardware required for implementation, and 12 have installed between 95 and 99 percent of the PTC system hardware. All but one of the railroads have acquired sufficient spectrum.
“The railroads have achieved some significant improvements over the past year implementing this safety technology,” FRA Administrator Ronald L. Batory said. “While we are seeing progress among a majority of railroads, we want to see everyone meet their requirements.”
Any railroad with 90 percent or less of PTC system hardware installed is considered at risk, according to the FRA. During the second quarter, the number of at-risk railroads dropped from 12 to nine.
Class I railroads and entities that provide intercity or commuter rail passenger transportation are required to fully implement a PTC system on all route miles by Dec. 31, unless it qualifies for an alternative schedule.
Installation of PTC system hardware is one of the six statutory criteria required to qualify for an alternative schedule.
https://transportationtodaynews.com/news/10449-fra-releases-second-quarter-update-on-ptc-systems/
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EPA Asks Court to Keep Litigation over Obama Rule on Ice
Aug 27, 2018 | E&E Greenwire
By Niina Heikkinen
EPA is asking a federal appeals court to keep holding off litigation on the Clean Power Plan now that it has released a draft replacement rule.
On Friday, the agency told the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit that finalizing its draft Affordable Clean Energy rule is a "high priority."
"EPA is committed to completing final rulemaking action as expeditiously as practicable," the agency wrote in a 30-day status update to the D.C. Circuit.
The agency has maintained since the beginning of the Trump administration that the lawsuit over the Clean Power Plan should not move forward because EPA was planning to change its approach to regulating power plant greenhouse gas emissions.
After some judges signaled their impatience with the pace of activity, EPA has moved forward with replacing the rule, most recently by releasing the ACE proposal last Tuesday.
ACE is a much more narrowly focused plan for cutting emissions than the Clean Power Plan. The rule would revise what it considers the "best system of emissions reductions" and focuses on limiting carbon emissions from power plants at a facility level.
Under the rule, EPA would offer states guidance on what technologies they could use to make improvements, but states would have wide latitude in determining what improvements would work best for their individual facilities.
The agency is also considering easing permitting requirements under the New Source Review program to make it cheaper for facilities to make modifications.
EPA reiterated its prediction from last month that a final rule would be completed in the beginning of 2019. That puts the agency on a tight deadline.
https://www.eenews.net/greenwire/2018/08/27/stories/1060095265
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NJ Governor Vetoes Plastic Bag Fee
Aug 27, 2018 | The Hill - E2 Wire
By Timothy Cama
New Jersey’s Democratic governor on Monday vetoed a bill that would have put a five-cent fee on the purchases of plastic grocery bags.
Gov. Phil Murphy (D) said in his veto statement that he supported the goal of reducing plastic pollution that is blamed on single-use bags from grocery stores, restaurants and elsewhere, but he could not support the bill as written.
He criticized, among other aspects, the fact that only certain businesses would be targeted.
“Instituting a five-cent fee on single-use bags that only applies to certain retailers does not go far enough to address the problems created by overreliance on plastic bags and other single-use carryout bags,” he said in the statement to lawmakers.
“In order to make a real difference, a single-use bag program must be devised and applied more broadly and consistently in a manner that would avoid loopholes that undermine the ultimate purpose of the program.”
Numerous localities, including some in New Jersey, have either banned businesses from providing single-use plastic bags or put fees on them. But the bill would have resulted in the first statewide fee.
Murphy’s criticisms echo those from some environmentalists, who took issue not just with the loopholes in the legislation but also with the fact that the money would go to the state’s general funds and would not be set aside for environmental programs, NorthJersey.com reported.
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/403793-nj-governor-vetoes-plastic-bag-fee
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Climate Forecast: More Fires, Fewer Beaches, Stressed Grid
Aug 27, 2018 | E&E Greenwire
By Anne C. Mulkern
Two-thirds of Southern California beaches could disappear and the size of wildfires in the state could nearly double by 2100 because of climate change, a report released today said.
California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment revealed the findings in an analysis that seeks to translate global climate models into real-world impacts. It's aimed at helping state and local governments plan ways to adapt. Several regional reports give details at city and county levels.
Along with fires and sea-level rise, the reports examined pressures on the power grid, a jump in extreme heat days, threats to human health and other categories.
"In California, facts and science still matter," Gov. Jerry Brown (D) said in a statement. "These findings are profoundly serious and will continue to guide us as we confront the apocalyptic threat of irreversible climate change."
The analysis forecasts high financial costs. Sea-level rise of about 20 inches by 2050 — considered a moderately likely scenario — would trigger nearly $17.9 billion in damage to homes and other buildings, the report said. An extreme flood event on top of sea-level rise would almost double the costs.
Patrick Barnard, a coastal geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, said researchers looked primarily at Southern California. The outlook is even more dramatic when wrapping in the rest of the coast. Under one worst-case scenario, sea-level rise combined with cliff erosion and extreme storms could put $150 billion in property at risk and affect coastal land where 600,000 people live.
While there's "scary stuff" in the report, it can help people make choices, said Robert Weisenmiller, chairman of the California Energy Commission.
"It's an opportunity to really focus on ways to mitigate the impacts of these changes through adaptation measures," Weisenmiller said. "The basic message is ... we need to adapt now."
He added, "To the extent we're talking about really severe heat waves," for example, "we can start identifying who's going to be the most impacted." Adaptation options include adding local cooling centers or requiring "cool roofs" designed to reflect more sunlight and absorb less heat.
Heat will be a major issue in some areas. The regional report for the Inland Desert region — a swath of land in the southeast corner of the state — projects temperatures could rise 8 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century. That will mean the number of days hotter than 95 degrees could jump to 141 per year in Mojave, and to nearly half the year in Palm Springs.
That will tax the state's grid as people crank on their air conditioners, the report said, "a critical finding for California's electric system, because generating capacity must match peak electricity demand."
Extreme heat will be especially hard for low-income people without air conditioning and older people unable to get to a cooler location, said Bruce Riordan, program director of the Climate Readiness Institute at the University of California, Berkeley, and a contributor to the San Francisco Bay Area regional report. State and local officials will need to find ways to help the most vulnerable communities, he said.
"The great income inequality that we have in California is going to be heightened unless we take real steps to deal with it," Riordan said. The effects of warming "will hit people with low incomes harder, and it will be harder for them to recover," he said.
The statewide and local reports also could help people realize how climate change affects people around the world, said Jonathan Parfrey, a reviewer of the statewide climate assessment and a contributor to the Los Angeles regional assessment.
"If you're just looking at a global report, it seems just so bloodless," Parfrey said. "You don't grasp what these effects mean to real people." With the assessment and local reports, he said, "you have a context for it, so you get a sense of how this thing that's called climate change, what it actually means to people on the ground."More fires, higher insurance rates
The reports looked at different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Under one, the "business as usual" scenario, emissions continue to rise through the end of the century. Greenhouse gas concentrations in that case would hit more than triple the level that existed before human-caused emissions began to build.
Under an alternative scenario, actions are taken to cut emissions. Greenhouse gas pollution still rises through midcentury because of the climate impact built into the atmosphere. After that, emissions would begin to fall.
The worst impacts come under the business-as-usual case. One study found that the average area burned by wildfires would increase 77 percent, and the frequency of extreme wildfires burning more than 39 square miles would jump nearly 50 percent.
That would affect insurance, the analysis said. In the areas with the highest fire risk, the cost of fire insurance could rise 18 percent by 2055. As well, the share of people with property insurance would fall.
"We've always had fires in California, but we're having larger fires, more intense fires," and ones that fire officials say they haven't seen before, Riordan said. "All of that has a huge impact."
Increased fires will especially affect the Sierra Nevada and the northern parts of the state. Those areas now have cooler temperatures and more precipitation. Future higher temperatures, lower snowfall and more variable precipitation will cause a bigger shift for the mountains than for warmer, drier urban areas, said LeRoy Westerling, a University of California, Merced, professor who worked on the fire analysis.
"Relatively speaking, the forests are more sensitive to that same increase in temperature," Westerling said.
"As you warm up the state and you make precipitation more variable," he added, "you dry the landscape out," extending the fire season and increasing the number of years that could have very active fire seasons.
Prescribed burns and treatments to cut parts of forests could mitigate the impact, the report said. Under one model, treating about 30 percent of vegetated area would reduce the burn area increase in the Sierra Nevada by 16 to 31 percent.
Climate models suggest California's precipitation might start to come primarily in December through February, with less rain in fall and spring. That could affect fires pushed by Santa Ana and Diablo winds. Those typically come in fall. Without fall rains to mitigate, fires in those periods could be more severe, analysts said.
An increase in fires has an impact on health, Westerling said. The blazes create emissions that drift far beyond the fire area and can aggravate asthma and other conditions.Deciding to save beaches or homes
The impact on California's iconic coastline also would be dramatic. Under mid- to high sea-level-rise scenarios, "31 to 67 percent of Southern California beaches may completely erode by 2100 without large-scale human interventions," the statewide report said.
New state guidance for dealing with sea-level rise is asking communities to plan for an extreme scenario: a roughly 9-foot-higher ocean by 2100. Though now seen as a remote possibility, that could happen with rapid melting of the Greenland and Antarctica ice caps, said Barnard with USGS.
The reports present state and local officials with what will become a growing dilemma. If they allow people to erect sea walls, and to armor cliffs, that sets a line for the back of the beach and will contribute to loss of sand, Barnard said.
Cliffs now retreat at a rate of about a foot a year. As seas rise and the water hits those cliffs more often, that will accelerate to about 2 feet annually, Barnard said. As cliffs erode, they deposit sand on the beach. If cities allow people to erect barricades supporting the cliffs — and to keep armor already in place — that means less sand.
"It's really sort of a fundamental question: Are we going to hold the line and protect what's right behind the cliffs, or are we going to let the natural system take over and move sediment up and down the coast?" Barnard said. "There's no easy answer."
In many beach cities, homes are worth multiple millions of dollars, he said, so it's unlikely cities will restrain homeowners wanting protection. The California Coastal Commission, however, has imposed limits on sea walls.
Adding sand is one solution cities have chosen, but it's expensive and will become more so because "resources are waning. Where are we going to find all the sand?" Barnard said.
https://www.eenews.net/greenwire/2018/08/27/stories/1060095291
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